Traders said sayonara to the summer swoon to kick off August. The S&P 500 posted its best week since April following a slew of so-called “clearing events” that ranged from a partial hedge fund liquidation to a controversial Fed meeting to mega-cap tech earnings.
Then, earlier this month, a surprise coordinated currency intervention between the U.S. Treasury and Japan pressured the dollar, allowing for even more gains as we approach Q3’s halfway point.
A Lot Has Gone Right
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
Consider that gains on equity holdings for some of the largest firms are more than just icing on the earnings cake, tariff refunds are hitting corporate coffers, and AI- and OBBBA-fueled capex juices the index’s short-term aggregate profit. There may even be lingering tax refunds being spent at the consumer level, along with the late-Q2 World Cup boost.
The Easy Comps Won’t Last Forever
Toss it all together, and the S&P 500 is up low teens this year, potentially on the way to another 20%+ annual heater. Not to cast a rain cloud over the record-high party, but it’s possible that the myriad aforementioned EPS-boosting factors could seriously raise the profit bar in the out year, and probably beyond. It’s not on investors’ minds heading into the fall conference season, but push might soon come to shove.
Capex Is the New Scorecard
In the here and now, nothing is the talk of the Street like AI. While there are other x-factors, few headlines sway stocks like a major NVIDIA partnership or investment commitment from a hyperscaler. The last few months remind traders that the pendulum can swing both ways. As we hinted at leading into the Q2 earnings season, it’s really capex that matters more than the bottom line.
The latest concerning news came Monday, when Intel announced a major equity offering. The move continues a trend of increasing issuance. Be on the lookout for pointed questions from analysts directed toward Intel’s management team at the upcoming Hot Chips 2026 conference, held August 23 to 25.
September Could Bring the Next Catalyst
Then, in September, Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia Technology Conference is arguably the coup de grâce of the season. Tech and Communication Services giants from around the world will flock to San Francisco from the 8th to the 11th. By then, NVIDIA earnings will be in hand, and we’ll already be looking forward to the third-quarter reporting period.
Diners Ditching Salads & Pizza
Consumer trends are also up for debate. This summer, U.S. inflation-adjusted retail sales finally eclipsed the 2021 peak, despite lousy sentiment and this year’s gas price jump. Travel companies remain some of the biggest YTD winners, while restaurant stocks have been a mixed bag. Casual dining names are largely up, but the cyclospora outbreak prompts customers to think twice before ordering a big salad. Papa Johns, meanwhile, suspended its dividend due to troubled same-store sales. Like a buffet, there’s a little something for everyone right now.
The Calendar Gets Busy From Here
Lots of topics. Plenty of drama. Here are the conferences to track through the end of September:
Information Technology & Communication Services
August 12: Needham Virtual AI Infrastructure Conference
August 17: Rosenblatt Securities 6th Annual Age of AI Technology Summit
August 19: Needham 7th Annual Semiconductor and SemiCap 1X1 Conference
August 23: Hot Chips
August 24: Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communication Technology Conference
August 26: Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
September 1: Barclays Media and Telecom Conference
September 8: Citi Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications TMT Conference
September 8: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference
September 9: Bank of America Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference
September 9: Wolfe Research TMT Conference
September 10: JP Morgan Rising Tech Leaders Forum
September 15: BMO TMT Conference
September 15: Salesforce DREAMFORCE
Health Care
August 19: 19th Annual Piper Sandler MedTech and Diagnostics California Bus Tour
September 3: Jefferies ‘Back to School’ Healthcare Fireside Chat
September 4: Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
September 8: Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
September 9: Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
September 9: CITI Biopharma Back to School Summit
September 10: UBSs Athletic Training & Lifestyle Innovation Day
September 14: Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
September 16: Deutsche Bank Healthcare Summit
September 15: Baird Global Healthcare Conference
September 22: Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
August 12: JP Morgan Auto Conference
September 8: Berenberg Food Ingredients & Chemicals Conference
September 15: Goldman Sachs 33rd Annual Global Retailing Conference
September 17: UBS Luxury Conference
September 22: Wells Fargo 9th Annual Consumer Conference
September 23: Bernstein Consumer Conference
September 24: JP Morgan Beauty Conference
Financials & Real Estate
August 13: 8th Annual Needham Virtual Fintech & Digital Transformation Conference
September 3: Goldman Sachs Real Estate Equity and Debt Conference, London
September 8: Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
September 9: KBW Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) Insurance Conference
September 9: Evercore ISI 18th Annual Evercore Real Estate Conference
September 13: Barclays Global Financials CEO Conference
September 14: Barclays 24th Global Financial Services Conference
September 15: Oppenheimer Fintech Leaders Conference
September 16: UBS Fintech One-on-One Conference
September 16: Bank of America Securities Global Real Estate Conference
September 22: Bank of America Securities 31st Annual Financials CEO Conference
Industrials
August 12: Barclays 10th Annual Building & Building Products Conference
August 12: Raymond James Virtual Industrials Showcase
August 17: Needham 15th Annual Industrial Tech, Robotics, & Power 1×1 Conference
September 8: BNP Paribas Global Aerospace & Defense Conference
September 8: Deutsche Bank 16th Annual Aviation Forum
September 8: Morgan Stanley Industrial CEOs Unplugged
September 9: UBS Business Services and Leisure and Transport Conference
September 9: Jefferies Industrials Conference
September 22: BNP Paribas Business and Leisure & Transport Conference
Energy & Utilities
September 1: Deutsche Bank dbAccess Back to School Utilities Conference
September 8: Barclays 40th Annual Energy-Power Conference
September 9: Jefferies Renewables, Clean Energy and E&C Conference
September 16: Exane BNP Paribas ESG Conference
September 23: BNP Paribas Annual Power Up Conference
September 23: TD Cowen 3rd Annual Energy Conference
September 29: Wolfe Research Utilities, Midstream & Clean Energy Conference
Materials
September 9: UBS Global Materials Conference
September 22: Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek 2026
September 27: Mining Forum Americas (Denver Gold Forum) 2026
September 29: Bank of America Building Materials & Construction Conference
Regional
August 31: Goldman Sachs Asia Leaders Conference
September 1: HSBC 13th Annual China Conference
September 2: Deutsche Bank dbAccess European TMT Conference
September 8: Citi Global Emerging Markets (GEMS) Conference
September 9: UBS Global Emerging Markets (GEM) Conference
September 9: JP Morgan European Leveraged Finance Conference
September 13: Morgan Stanley Annual Latin America Conference
September 15: Goldman Sachs European Communacopia Conference
September 15: JP Morgan Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference
September 15: Morgan Stanley European Utilities and Energy Summit
September 18: Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) Conference
September 20: Berenberg/Goldman Sachs 15th German Corporate Conference (GCC)
September 22: Citi China Industrial SMID Transport Conference
Investor-Specific & Multi-Sector
August 12: Mizuho Industrials & Chemicals Conference
August 19: Sidoti August Virtual Micro-Cap Conference
August 24: JP Morgan Aspen Summit
September 14: Piper Sandler 5th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference
September 15: Morgan Stanley 14th Annual Laguna Conference
September 22: JP Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference
September 24: Deutsche Bank Investor & Issuer Bond Forum
September 28: Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
