Oil is surging but this isn’t just about prices at the pump. It’s about a bigger macro shift.
WTI futures are trading around $90 a barrel, with gas prices over $4 a gallon. Technically, oil is holding above 85 with 95 now the key level to clear.
At the same time, we have a major supply disruption that is pushing global buyers toward U.S. energy.
But oil prices aren’t just about supply. They reflect scarcity today and uncertainty about tomorrow.
Now layer in the macro.
The dollar is weakening.
Yields are steady but not rising.
Many believe that commodities are in a super cycle.
And that may well be true.
But if oil stays elevated while the dollar and yields decline, that’s not a tailwind, that’s pressure building in the system.
Price always leads headlines.
Even with talk of the war ending, the market will tell you the story first.
Actionable Takeaway
Below 85 brings relief.
Above 95?
That’s your signal to reduce risk.
Don’t trade the headlines — trade the levels. The market already knows.
Twitter: @ecomodfam
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
