Will November Seasonality Be Bullish For Stocks Yet Again?

Ryan Detrick

Welcome to November. After the best month in four years and the 6th best October ever for the S&P 500, the big question is what happens next? I’ve been in the bull camp and continue to think this rally could have legs. Especially if November market seasonality remains true to form.

First up, the next two months are the top two performing months going back to 1950.

Think about that for a minute. As you know, there’s no guarantees with investing, but that’s pretty bullish.

Here’s what the monthly S&P 500 returns look like since 1950:

S&P 500 Monthly Returns Since 1950

november december stock market seasonality performance history

Here’s what the average November market seasonality (i.e. performance) has looked like since 1950. Really strong to start the month, then a lull before a late month surge.

average stock market move in november market seasonality chart

Here’s where things get fun:  Over the past 10 years November market seasonality hasn’t been very strong – coming in right about the middle of the pack.

monthly stock market returns 2005-2015 november seasonality

The past 10 years, November tends to be weak right out of the gate for stocks – until a late bounce.

spx sp 500 index november seasonality chart month

Here’s a chart summing up monthly returns on various timeframes. Bottom line here is that end of year strength for the stock market is quite common.

spx monthly returns chart end of year strength history

 

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