Why Oil Prices Could Defy Sellers and The Bears

What has been weighing on oil prices?

1. A stronger dollar
2. Firm interest rates
3. Slower US factory activity (4 month low) because of tariffs
4. Talk of Russia-Ukraine Peace deal-allowing Russian to export more oil

What could send oil prices higher?

1. US Dollar breaks 99
2. Federal Reserve cuts rates in December
3. Peace agreements don’t work out
4. Other geopolitical stress erupts
5. OPEC+ surprisingly cuts production

I have written other pieces about oil. There are controversies over supply/demand going forward.

Can producers make money with oil under $60?

Is there as much oil as we see in reports.

This inconsistency of fundamental factors is exciting for commodity traders.

This is when we watch price.

The chart above is the January WTI crude oil contract.

$56 per barrel is the lowest price in a while, which was made on October 20^th.

Since then, the 50-DMA (blue) has been resistance.

This chart is the spot price.

We added the Real Motion indicator below.

Momentum gains as we see from the red dots holding the dotted Bollinger band lines.

And the proximity to the 50 and 200-DMAs on the momentum chart is much closer than the proximity of the price to the 50-DMA on the price charts. 

What are we looking for?

Combining the futures charts with the ETF USO chart,

1. We are looking for a close above $59 a barrel.
2. That would be a signal the price could rise with a starter position potential
3. If using USO refer to the futures charts as your guide 
4. We would wait to add on a phase change-2 closes over the 50-DMA
5. As far as risk, we would risk the October lows
6. We would add again with 2 closes over the 200-DMA (green)
7. As the price moves up, we will raise the risk level according to our ATR strategy.

Overall, we are beginning to focus on more commodities.

With silver and gold holding, it is possible to see spillover into other hard assets.

This is a preview of a huge focus for investing in 2026.

Twitter: @marketminute

The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.