- Record planted soybean acreage and production estimates for Brazil with no legitimate weather threats or significant planting delay concerns (soybean planting is approaching 50% complete)
- Informa Economics projecting 2016 US planted soybean acreage of 85.3 million acres, which would exceed the previous record by 2 million acres
What will it take to break through all these resistance factors? I believe it’s going to require a supply-side correction in either Brazil and/or the US in 2016. Certain weather prognosticators are already forecasting the return of a La Nina weather pattern during the latter half of 2016. La Nina is often associated with bringing hot and dry weather conditions to the US Midwest.
However until the weather becomes a tangible discussion topic; soybean futures are likely to remain under pressure even at current price levels. A break back down to $8.20 SF6 is certainly possible (see monthly chart on page 3).
January 2016 Soybean Futures Chart
Soybeans Monthly Continuous Chart
Thanks for reading.
Twitter: @MarcusLudtke
Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
Data References:
- USDA United States Department of Ag
- EIA Energy Information Association
- NASS National Agricultural Statistics Service
