U.S. Stock Market Update: Summer Road Trip Twists and Turns

stock market etfs important bullish analysis chart for month august

Last week, I sat down with Max Wiethe from Real Vision to discuss a myriad of timely and relevant market topics for investors. You can watch this video via the link at the end of the article.

So much has happened just in the past week!

Here’s a rundown:

– Corporate earnings blow outs from Apple AAPL, Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, Facebook, FB and Amazon AMZN

– Apple’s announcement of a 4:1 stock split

– The Federal Reserve Meeting

– The Anti-trust Committee Meeting 

– Trump blocks TikTok

– Trump threatens to delay the November Election

– The politics of how much more stimulus our House and Senate will dole out

– The controversary around Kodak.

And there is way more…

However, the point is, besides remaining extremely bullish on gold and silver, junk bonds and our Economic Modern Family ETFs continue to serve as our best guide for market price, which in the end, is the only thing that matters.

To review, last week I wrote about junk bonds and the correlation of risk on and market action. JNK closed on new multi-month highs. 

I also wrote about the Gold to S&P 500 ratio. Gold is still well underperforming the SPY, which suggests you ain’t seen nothin’ yet for the metal.

While the picture remains mixed for the Economic Modern Family, the charts are predominately positive.

Retail XRT closed on new 2020 highs. Led by e-commerce and a boost in retail spending, this is perhaps the best sign I see concerning hope going forward for the economy.

The Russell 2000 IWM, in spite of the rising jobless claims and the worst GDP number since the 1940’s, hung tough. IWM closed right on the 50-WMA (blue) and below the 200-WMA (green). 

Biotechnology IBB took a breather, partly because of Gilead’s (GILD) poor earnings. Nevertheless, the overall breakout from 126-130 should be support. 

Regional Banks KRE had an inside week. That makes total sense as the weakest link. Prodigal is still unsure whether he wants to join the party or spoil the fun. A break above 39.30-39.50 could trap a lot of shorts.

Transportation got steam late Friday after news that Kansas City Southern Railroad could be of interest for a takeover bid by private equity investors. Now, IYT has its biggest hurdle over 180.

Semiconductors SMH reached the top of the weekly channel you see in black. This is a chartist’s dream. Through 168-170 close your eyes and buy as tech has more upside. On the other hand, should SMH back away from the channel and break below 160, that’s a clean failure.

When we look at the Family as a whole, we see investor sentiment. Retail and tech are where the bulk of money is going. Biotech should continue to shine, while small caps, transportation are alive on hope of more stimulus. Banks are the key to watch as they could see money rotation if this week begins well. 

Latest news flash, folks in India are rushing to borrow money from banks in exchange for their gold jewelry. Indian households are sitting on a $1.5 trillion hoard of gold.

Could this start a trend elsewhere where banks and financial firms use demand to draw new customers?

Stay tuned as the summer road trip takes many twists and turns!

Real Vision Summer Road Trip in the Markets 07-29-20 https://rvtv.io/2DlovVT With picks!

S&P 500 (SPY) 323 now pivotal support 332.58 a gap to fill 

Russell 2000 (IWM) held the 200-WMA and now has 150 resistance 

Dow (DIA) 270 resistance 262.50 support

Nasdaq (QQQ) 262 support and 270 resistance

KRE (Regional Banks) Confirmed bearish phase. When it goes up and down the 50-DMA a lot, something big is coming

SMH (Semiconductors) 165-168 pivotal 

IYT (Transportation) 172.55 support 179-180 resistance 

IBB (Biotechnology) 142 resistance 136 support

XRT (Retail) Looks like Granny wants 50.00 (or to be 50 again!)

Volatility Index (VXX) 27.82 the 200-DMA

Junk Bonds (JNK) Risk appetite onLQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) 137.50 support

Twitter: @marketminute

The author may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.