U.S. Economic Surprise Index Higher as Hard Data Concerns Grow

Sean Emory

The Economic Surprise Index soars higher on increased survey readings.

We have seen an overall surprise beat from consumer confidence, empire manufacturing surveys, and the Dallas Fed survey.

This further emphasizes the hard data versus soft data debate. Hard data being those data points which are not survey based and actual evidence of strong economic activity.

Initial jobless claims, continuing claims, and non farm payroll readings have been missing estimates. While hard data missing estimates does not mean economic data is weak, is does mean that activity may be trending negatively.

U.S. Economic Surprise Index Chart – 5 Years

us economic surprise index higher highs survey data_news_investing_november


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