S&P 500 futures (ES_F) are failing after a weak bounce gave way under the pressure of sellers. For now, the battle has been won by sellers, and a loss of the 2022 S&P 500 futures support level would set its sights on 2011.
The bigger cycles and market structures show a drift into lower support still, but don’t count the sellers out as we approach value areas – the weekly candles for S&P 500 futures show what buyers have been doing at these lower levels.
Short term S&P 500 support is now near the 2022.75 mark; and resistance near 2055.5. Momentum readings are negative and falling intraday – that means we watch for bounces to short, and lower lows to continue. Steep pullbacks on S&P 500 futures remain buy zones- we are approaching another value area. Lower highs and lower lows are holding the pattern in the drift to deeper support.
Short time frame momentum indicators are negative and falling, and lower than Thursday. Longer cycles are downward trending, and slipping into neutral territory.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF FRIDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil (CL_F)
Crude Oil continues to fail – I have noticed language now become very dismal around the chart. Bounces are still getting sold. The trade is still one of supply and demand and it is not ‘crowded’ at all. Traders are skittish at these levels, so we could see sharp swings intraday. Crude Oil price support sits at 36.16, while resistance lies near 37.55. For an intraday trading formation, we see a range event between 36.16 and 36.85, noting that momentum and trend are bearish, but still trying to reverse. Above a 37.55 retest sends us near 37.7, then 38.3 and 38.6. Below a 36.16 retest sends us to 35.9, 35.6 and perhaps 35.3. Momentum on shorter time frames is negative but rising.
E-mini S&P Futures (ES_F)
Chart With Still Active S&P 500 Trading Levels
Upside motion for S&P 500 futures is best setup on the bounce off the recapture of 2032.5, or a retest of 2038 after a breakout. Sellers are trying to hold control of the area so picking bottoms here are very suspect for now. Sellers do not seem to feel exhausted yet. A hold of 2032.5 should deliver 2035.25, 2038.5, then 2041.25, 2045.75, 2047.5, 2051. Again, another countertrend setup with the prevailing negative momentum. Keep an eye out for bounces that begin to hold for the short term bounce that might come.
Downside motion below the failed retest of 2022, or at the failure to hold 2046 opens a short (watch momentum on tight time frames- that would be an aggressive short). Retracement into lower levels from 2046 gives us the targets at 2041.75, 2038.25, 2032.5, 2028.75, 2022.5, 2017.75, and 2014.5.
As long as traders keep themselves aware of key S&P 500 support and resistance levels, risk can be adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.