Stocks Set For Decline If This Trend Line Doesn’t Hold

While the media is obsessively focused on cheering for the S&P 500 to close at a new all-time high, the bond market is quietly collapsing. 

The 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) broke its 50 day moving average today and has now had the second worst 5-day slide since the March 2020 meltdown.

The last time treasury bonds got hit this hard was the end of June and the S&P 500 had sold off over 6% from its high. 

However, history doesn’t usually repeat itself exactly, so I never want to assume that it will. 

Additionally, treasury bonds falling is not always bad for stocks. The more important question is, why are the bonds falling? 

If bonds are falling because the economy is recovering faster, that’s good for stocks. 

On Tuesday and Wednesday, bonds fell on the back of two inflation reports. Today they fell out of bed when the there wasn’t enough demand at record sized $26 billion auction. 

Neither sounds good for stocks.

The market has a funny way of ignoring bad news, until it can’t.

tlt long term treasury bond etf break down lower investing image august 13

The TLT is sitting is through the 50 DMA, and at the major closing trend line you see in the chart, and JNK looks to be rolling over.

Don’t panic, but don’t let the S&P 500’s all-time high make you take your eyes off the bonds.

S&P 500 (SPY) Doji and today’s high is 3 cents lower than yesterday. Be cautious under 332. Watch 330 as important support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Double inside days! 160 resistance area and 153 key support.

Dow (DIA) Consolidation day. 270 now pivotal support

Nasdaq (QQQ) Ran up to old high, but like the SPY, couldn’t get there or stay there. Doji. 275 is the all-time high level to break.  260 is key support level and a trendline.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Weak demand at today’s 10-year auction sunk the bonds. Now well below its 50 DMA. 162 next big support.

Twitter: @marketminute

The author may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.