On Monday, I sat down with the incomparable Maggie Lake.
As she posts on her Substack page, “As ever with Mish, we got through a lot in 30 minutes”
Here is the link to the interview.
Plus, Maggie put together a fabulous transcript of the highlights, as follows:
Commodities Update
Mish started out on the commodities exchange in NYC so she has a feel for the sector like few others do, and right now, she thinks something is stirring:
“We have silver outperforming now for real, we have oil sneaking up, we have copper going up, we have live cattle on all-time highs. We have some of the grains, particularly the soybeans, looking like they’re starting to base… On top of that, we have geopolitical issues, we have some predicting drought this summer, we still have high debt, we still have a lot of spending, and we still have the tariff impact. All of that tells me that not every commodity, but a lot of them, are undervalued.”
But “you have to be selective,” Mish said. “In 1979, we saw commodities take off only in pockets – it wasn’t every single commodity.”
Above chart is the Energy Sector ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE).
Then Sprinkle With Energy Demands
On top of all of that, Mish points out the increase in energy demand with more and more AI data centers being built, as well as seasonal demands.
Mish sees nuclear being put back on the table (though we’re a few years away from that), so she bought uranium at around 20. Aside from that, “solar and wind in the US is number 2 behind natural gas,” she said. “Natural gas is plentiful, is still pretty cheap. But what’s happening with solar and wind is that even though the government is talking about cutting subsidies, it’s gotten cheaper so the subsidies may not necessarily be as important as they were… We’re starting to see some of those solar stocks go up.”
“[It’s] all hands on deck for energy,” Mish said. “Every source of energy is needed.”
See XLE chart above
Bitcoin at $100k “Was a Gift”
“When Bitcoin dropped down to 100, that was kind of a gift,” Mish said. “It gave you a little chance on Friday and now [it’s] over 107. That’s a big rebound, and that tells me there’s a lot of people out there willing to put money on the table. Now that it’s over 107… 135, 140 is possible. It has everything going for it, including a very pro crypto administration.”
Elsewhere in the crypto universe, Mish flagged a volume spike in ETH yesterday, which “tells me money’s starting to come in. We’re in a chop zone here, but if we clear this consolidation, [ETH] could go back up easily to 3,000.”
Retail Sector (XRT) Update
There’s a bifurcation in the stock market, Mish said. “Most of the gains over the last few weeks have been just about 10% of the market,” she said. “As much as I love Granny Retail, if you step back to when it peaked in 2021, the retail sector is still about 30% away from its all-time highs.”
“The consumer is not disappointing the way many expected, but they’re not exactly coming in like gangbusters to buy on every level,” she said. “So I think the consumer sector has to be watched because ultimately that’s what’s going to drive the economy.”
XRT Daily
Mish On…
Tech
Mish has switched gears a little from the classic tech stocks to quantum computing stocks, including QUBT.
The Vanity Trade
Novo-Nordisk Stock (NVO)
Mish still believes the vanity trade that she first flagged with us back in October is a “mega trade that is going to impact real people who spend real money.” “Novo Nordisk has been creeping up, Ulta and Elf reported recently and did unbelievably well, you’ve got Match.com all of a sudden starting to look good, Peloton making a move, Planet Fitness making a move, HIMS is a hot stock, Stitch Fix is on my radar.”
The Dollar
“It could go up a little bit, but that doesn’t mean the trend is reversed. Unless we see a move back over 100 in DXY, I’m pretty convinced we’re in a downtrend.”
Monthly chart of Pro Dollar ETF (UUP)
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
