S&P 500 Index: Sell Bear Market Rally for the Re-test?

Mark Newton

S&P 500 Index Trading Outlook: Short-term bullish up to 2631-2650

s&p 500 index futures trading sell bear market rally chart analysis march 26

Some late day selling, but insufficient to turn bearish. Note that chart above is pre-market Thursday morning.

Still expect gains are possible today, until/unless Wednesday’s lows are broken on a close. Look to sell strength up at 2631-50.

The S&P 500 Index will need to rally now quickly to avoid stalling out and turning back lower after big gains off lows.

Looking back to Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index extended gains, albeit in a very sloppy fashion. That said, it still managed to gain nearly 150 points after breaking its steep downtrend.

It’s important to note that while short-term downtrends from last week were broken, this remains within a larger downtrend from February. For the S&P 500 this lies up near 2750, which may not be reached right away. (The NASDAQ, shown below, found meaningful resistance on Wednesday near its own downtrend). Post market pullbacks down to 2461 look important, with 2386-8 important below.

Until/unless this is broken, gains are still possible. Under would raise the likelihood of a more meaningful downdraft. 

Overall, i’m expecting that even on further gains Thursday/Friday, it’s right to sell into this initial bounce off the lows and utilize this to add hedges for a retest.

Twitter:  @MarkNewtonCMT

Author has positions in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.