Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields In Months Ahead!

Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation.

Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?

Today’s long-term “monthly” chart of the 10-year US treasury bond yield seems to think so.

In my humble opinion, the chart below puts the Federal Reserve’s 2.5 year move in perspective… and it seems to be a real outlier of the past 60-years!

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As you can see, the 10-year bond yield rallied up to the 23% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1980s high/2020s low (green line). And, while doing so, it recorded a Rate-Of-Change (ROC) that we haven’t seen before: yields are up 560% in 30 months! That is up 400% more than any 30-month period in the past 60 years. Looks like it’s time for a breather…

Time will tell if the Federal Reserve rose interest rates too fast. Stay tuned!

10-Year US Treasury Yield “monthly” Chart

10 year us treasury bond yield peak reversal lower year 2023 investing chart image

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Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.