Crude Oil Prices Rally But Cycles Suggest Correction

Crude Oil futures and the US OIL ETF (NYSEARCA:USO) traded 3% higher to nearly $73 on Wednesday morning, after the US government continued its efforts to persuade allies, including China and India, to stop purchasing oil from Iran.

Crude Oil has risen nearly 12% in the last five trading sessions.

Yesterday, oil gained over 3% after the initial announcement from the State Department announced that it would continue to implement the Iranian economic sanctions. An official stated that the expectation is for all purchases of Iranian oil to go to zero by November 4, without any waivers of conditions.

Last Friday, oil rose 5% after OPEC issued a carefully worded decision to boost supply by 1 million barrels per day. This was done however with an expectation that actual production would be less, due to the lower production capacity of countries such as Venezuela.

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In analyzing the weekly chart for /CL, we can see the it is trading in the rising phase of its current market cycle. Oil’s intermediate-term patterns have been positive.

Beyond this, however, we may see a top in the near future. We are likely to test and fail at or just above the recent high $73, with the peak in prices expected in the next few weeks.

Crude Oil Futures (/CL) Chart with Weekly Bars

crude oil price cycles chart forecast rally target topping_27 june

Slim provides a detailed analysis of 24 futures contracts every Wednesday on the askSlim FutureSpeak show. Watch a free sampleon our YouTube channel.

Twitter:  @askslim

Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.