10-Year Treasury Yield Testing Post-2012 Uptrend (Again)

All Eyes On That 10 Year Treasury Yield…

In mid-February, we posted a chart on the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield as part of our “Trendline Wednesday” Twitter series. The chart, in effect, stated that the 10-Year was “breaking” its post-2012 uptrend. If only we had decided to go with a “Trendline Friday” feature instead.

That’s because by the close that following Friday, the 10-Year Treasury Yield had reclaimed the considerable declines that had been in place mid-week. Thus, on the weekly chart, there technically was no breakdown, on a closing basis.

Again yesterday, we posted a chart of the 10-Year Treasury Yield dropping below the trendline and pondered is the 10-Year Yield breaking its uptrend for real this time? Well, once again it may have been too soon to make that proclamation as the 10-Year Yield jumped yesterday by enough to reclaim the uptrend… again.

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Thus, if one is focused on a potential further breakdown in the 10-Year Treasury Yield — for whatever reason, e.g., a dovish Fed, a slowing economy, etc. — it may be most prudent to view the developments using a weekly chart.

10 year treasury yield chart trend line tnx april 7

Thanks for reading.

More from Dana:  “Has The Stock Market Rally Made Investors Complacent


Twitter: @JLyonsFundMgmt

Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.