All Eyes On That 10 Year Treasury Yield…
In mid-February, we posted a chart on the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield as part of our “Trendline Wednesday” Twitter series. The chart, in effect, stated that the 10-Year was “breaking” its post-2012 uptrend. If only we had decided to go with a “Trendline Friday” feature instead.
That’s because by the close that following Friday, the 10-Year Treasury Yield had reclaimed the considerable declines that had been in place mid-week. Thus, on the weekly chart, there technically was no breakdown, on a closing basis.
Again yesterday, we posted a chart of the 10-Year Treasury Yield dropping below the trendline and pondered is the 10-Year Yield breaking its uptrend for real this time? Well, once again it may have been too soon to make that proclamation as the 10-Year Yield jumped yesterday by enough to reclaim the uptrend… again.
Thus, if one is focused on a potential further breakdown in the 10-Year Treasury Yield — for whatever reason, e.g., a dovish Fed, a slowing economy, etc. — it may be most prudent to view the developments using a weekly chart.
Thanks for reading.
More from Dana: “Has The Stock Market Rally Made Investors Complacent“
Twitter: @JLyonsFundMgmt
Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
