Will This Consumer Trend Turn Bearish For Stock Market?

Consumer behavior can tell you a lot about the stock market.

Sounds a bit funny, but it’s very true. And especially so when comparing buying of discretionary items versus buying of everyday staples items.

In today’s chart, we look at the long-term performance ratio of the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) to the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP). When discretionary spending is out-performing, this ratio is headed higher and indicative of consumers being more willing to spend money (risk-on).

As you can see, the longer-term trend has been higher confirming a bullish trend (for the ratio, and the stock market). This is highlighted by the rising price channel at each (1).

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BUT the ratio has turned sharply lower this month after testing the upper end of the price channel. It is now attempting a bearish reversal.

The decline currently has the ratio testing its up-trend line at (2). If support breaks at (2), it would send a bearish message to investors. Stay tuned!

Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) vs Staples ETF (XLP) “monthly” Ratio Chart

consumer discretionary staples etfs price performance bearish indicator stock market chart december

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Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.