S&P 500 futures for December 23 are continuing a recovery in our Santa rally – with charts and trading looking above at price resistance regions that begin near 2046 and continue into 2055 if trading pressure holds.
Our price expansion is continuing but look for a retrace into support after the run higher. Price resistance sits near 2046.5 with an expansion into 2057 if the charts hold traction upward. We have a bullish formation in the shorter cycles and time frames of the charts.
Our pattern of higher lows and higher highs is holding well. Eyes on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts should give us clear signals on directional travel. Near-term support for S&P 500 futures for December 23 is around 2031
Short time frame momentum indicators are negative but rising, and higher than Monday. Longer cycles are downward trending, and in negative territory.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Oil report today – Bullish action showing for short term cycles this morning. Pullbacks are consistently being bought and prices are forming higher lows and higher highs. Support has moved up into between 36.20 to 36.4. Jagged price action on bigger time frames is likely, as I have mentioned, so the pops we see right now in Crude Oil are certainly within normal ranges of motion- I still anticipate reversal as the chart tries to create a bigger basing formation.
Short term price support for Crude Oil sits near 36.4. Price resistance lies near 38.8 -36.9, then 37- 37.2, if that is breached and holds. For an intraday trading formation, support lies at 36.38 – resistance at 36.8 noting that momentum and trend are both bullish but slightly extended. Long trade off the pullback into support will yield highest returns. Breach above a 36.9 sends us to congestion near 37.04-37.24, and perhaps 37.7. Below a 36.38 failed retest sends us to 36.16, 35.96, and 35.69. Momentum on longer time frames is negative and still falling.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES_F)
This week’s chart with active S&P 500 futures price support and resistance trading levels. Click to enlarge.
Upside motion is best setup on the bounce off a 2036.5 retest – or a breach and positive retest of 2040. The long would be a trending move in short cycles and intermediate intraday cycles. A breach and retest that holds off 2036.5 makes a reasonable setup but watch 2046 for sellers to advance their agenda. The breach of 2040 will likely bring excited buyers to play – watch momentum carefully here. If momentum holds, we could see 2042.75, 2045.75, 2047.5, 2049, 2051.25, and 2055.5 on the way up from 2036.5.
Downside motion below the failed retest of 2035, or at the exhaustion formation that might show up at 2055 –the key there is watching for divergent action and then price failure as the chart tries to move higher. Retracement into lower levels from 2035 gives us the targets at 2032.75, 2030.75, 2029.5, 2027.5, 2025.5, and perhaps 2021. Short action would be countertrend unless we have swift expansion north and exhaust.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
The author trades futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.