I often find opportunities in the most challenging trading environments and next year is no exception.
I sent over to Maggie Lake from the Market House, my 2026 outlook.
Maggie said, “it was so extensive I’m going to do a deep dive with her next month.”
In the meantime, I gave a sneak peek at the themes I am tracking. Hint: See the chart above of the Silver ETF (NYSEARCA: SLV)
Note I changed Maggie’s reference to me in the 3rd person to the 1st person.
- Saddle Up. According to the Chinese zodiac, 2026 is the year of the Fire Horse which means it’s time to shake off that snake and get ready to ride what I believe will be a “fast, bold, volatile, and opportunity-rich” year.
- Family Ties. Investors have been nervous about the US economy and Tuesday’s payroll data did show a tick up in the unemployment rate, but I see signs of resilience.
My modern economic family, which I created 10 years ago to track the health of the US economy, is looking a bit more upbeat. The index, which tracks one market index and five sectors, underperformed for much of this year, even though growth stocks rallied. In many ways it mirrored the disconnect between the real economy and the financial economy. Now small caps (IWM) and transportation (IYT) hit all-time highs while retail (XRT) and regional banks (KRE) are coming back. For me, that may be a sign that while stocks are struggling the actual U.S. economy is in better shape than many fear.
- Trading IQ. I not only track macro, but am a trader first and foremost. These are just a couple of the sectors on my radar at the moment..
- Precious Metals – All of the factors that have supported the huge move in precious metals are still in place – debt, a weakening USD, geopolitical concerns. I am even more bullish silver than I was before and don’t think we’ve seen the parabolic move that would signal a top. I also believe gold has room to run to $4,700.
- Crypto – Some of those similar concerns about debt and debasement of the dollar should also prove supportive to crypto. Even though it has been a painful retracement, I think a lot of the speculation and shorts have been washed out. This is a sector that’s starting to feel like “a coiled spring”. If support at 80k holds for Bitcoin, this gets compelling.
- Financials – There has been some talk that reduced regulation will finally spur M&A which would be beneficial to investment banks. Add to that the possibility we see lower rates, a pick up in lending and increased trading and it’s hard to be negative financials, BUT I wouldn’t chase an industry that faces generational change. “I still think at some point the way people invest through a bank or borrow through a bank is evolving into something more digital and more in the neobank sector. …I can see it coming.”
- Tech – “We’re surprisingly flat.” Our quant models have exited NVDA, PLTR, even GOOG. While we are bullish the sector and AI longer-term, “right now is a pause and probably a healthy one.” While some of the big names are looking over-extended, one stock I am watching closely is IBM. “I really like the quantum computing part of what they’re doing. They haven’t been hyped the say some of the other big tech companies have….I don’t see any reason why that’s not a $400 next year.” I like where the Big Blue is trading and watching $310 as an area where we might add to her positions.
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
