Some notes from this week:
Growth stocks acting as a defense move again esp. given that the FED remains on the fence about interest rate.
Small caps and retail though, could still act as an anchor-for now, they both held a key area-6-7-year business cycle lows-which means-recession for now not definitive.
However, stagflation-very much a potential.
Oil prices that broke out over 80 have retested support. A trip back above 86-and could be a signal that the current war in Israel might escalate into oil regions like Iran.
Natural Gas is also rising.
Then add on to the macro:
Dollar and the US debt which keeps growing-a huge part of the US GDP
PPI CPI-hotter than expected.
The ratio between SPY and TLT or risk to off is a concern. (HYG to TLT even more so)
FED minutes-proceed with caution.
Overall, social unrest and anger fuels inflation as chaos is not what you want to see. And the situation appears to be becoming more and more volatile.
As picks go, our quant models are still in growth stocks like META TSLA NVDA with stops to protect profits.
Discretionary picks (light until further evidence of how “inside” sectors of the US economy do)
To hear and see firsthand all these points and more, please watch my interview with Dale Pinkert below.
The
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