THE BIG PICTURE
The broader stock market remains in an uptrend. And although we are overdue for a pullback, the best thing to do is follow the price action and avoid anticipation due to “noise”. If/When we enter a market correction, your process should stop you out of the trade.
Without further adieu, here’s my weekly futures trading update and outlook. We’ll start with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX).
S&P 500 Futures (ES) – Week 39 (week of September 25)
A Note On Using MML Charts: Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.
- Check out my week 38 recap and trend charts.
- S&P 500, Russell 2000 (RTY), and Dow Industrials (YM) index futures momentum remains upside; Nasdaq futures (NQ) pullback downside
- Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI), Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT), and S&P 500 at all time highs with Nasdaq lagging.
- After lagging in week 38, RTY lifts to all time highs.
- VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) at sub-10 levels.
- FANG/FAMMG stocks off their 52 week high with MSFT closest.
- MML Trend: S&P 500 at Zone High; Russell and Dow on track to upside Zone High; Nasdaq trending to Zone Low.
- ES/YM with nearest open gaps downside (see open gaps chart below).
- Indices major key moving averages in sync with 50>200.
- RTY exception 50<200.
- NQ under 10ema.
- Average volume at and under 60 day average.
- Crude Oil holding at MML highs.
- 50ma remains under 200 with price action above all three (10, 50, 200).
- Gold pulling back off MML high.
- MML short setup at 1343.8 with momentum downside holding.
- Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend (FFTY below).
Key Events in the Market This Week
- USA: Fed Speakers, GDP, Yellen
- GLOBAL: NZ Announcement, BOJ Minutes, JP CPI, GB GDP
- End of Q3
- Micron (memory chip maker) reports
- T-Mobile/Sprint merge?
- Affordable Health Care – last chance (The Health Care Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLV) is shown below
THE BOTTOM LINE
Contrary to Permabear consensus (and Jim Rogers) Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND. NQ pullback evident though with ES/YM/RTY holding up and driving to MML highs as Q3 end nears may continue to hold upside. As always, watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low. Downside, watch for ES/YM open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback.
THIS WEEK’S VIDEO: Check out my market outlook (markets covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL and ETF’s)
LOWEST OPEN GAPS
- ES: 1589
- NQ: 3864.75
- YM: 14745
Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.
Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.
The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.