THE BIG PICTURE
The major stock market indexes rallied upside again last week and remain in up-trends. We are overdue for a pullback, but the best thing for traders to do is follow the price action and steer clear of the noise and anticipating the next move. If/When the market begins a pullback, your process should stop you out of the trade… and/or offer new looks on both the long & short side.
Here’s my weekly stock market futures trading update and trend outlook. We’ll start by taking a look at the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY).
S&P 500 Chart – Week 48 (week of November 27)
Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.
- Week 47 recap and trend charts
- Stock market indices hits new all time highs
- Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) closes 44 point gap downside from ATH; rallies
- Open gaps remain downside on all 4 stock indices
- VIX Volatility Index (NDEXCBOE:VIX) levels increase and holding at mid 9
- Monitoring for next move up in overall market for the sectors to be in sync
- Daily HA bars trending off MML low; above 10ema
- FANG/FAAMG represented by the FDN (ETF) in strong uptrend with no evidence of pullback yet
- NYSE Advance – Decliners in sync upside with index
You can also watch my Weekly Market Outlook VIDEO
Key Events in the Market This Week
- USA: End of month, Home Sales, Fed speakers, Yellen, Beige Book, GDP, Personal Income, ISM-MFG
- GLOBAL: Japan CPI
- Q3 Earnings Season
- Cloud content companies
- OPEC meeting
- GM event on status of autonomous tech
- Auto makers monthly report
Week after week the market continues upside… it won’t go on forever so watch those trend indicators. Technically from all the indicators that I observe for trend remain exactly where they have been for the better part of 2017. So essentially, no change. What lies ahead is the hopes of tax reform so why would the investor bail yet until the final product out of Washington is released. HOPE seems to be the thread and pulse of the market and with a relentless low VIX, don’t be fooled that there is caution but as long as status qou holds, permabears may need to extend their nap. Seems to me like a solid case to send the market higher to the the end of 2017. Throw in a holiday rally if the number looks good as preliminary data is showing increased spending.
Watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low for first signs of a pullback. Downside, watch for open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback as 1st level of support.
Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.
Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.
The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.