S&P 500 Index Forecast: Rising Volatility Into Month End?

Steve Miller

Stocks continued to march higher last week, but market cycles point to choppy action arriving some time this week.

The stock market edged out some gains last week, as the S&P 500 Index rose 27 points to 3120, an increase of 0.9%.

For this week, stock market cycles suggest choppy price action, as I pointed out in the latest Market Week show (see video below). 

In last week’s testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell identified debt as a source of risk but noted, “I think possibly the day of reckoning could be quite far off.”

Thanks for that opinion, but our view is that the Fed does not have a good record of assessing when such risks will manifest. 

Our approach to technical analysis uses market cycles to project price action. Our analysis is that the S&P 500 is in the rising phase of its current cycle.

For this week, we expect it to chop around before it approaches the declining phase of its new cycle, which could bring a brief drop into early December.

S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart

s&p 500 index volatility this week november 18 stock market image

S&P 500 Index INDEXSP: .INX

Market Week Video – stock market outlook for week of November 18

For the “Best and Worst Stocks of the Week” check out the askSlim Market Week show every Friday on our YouTube channel.

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