Stock market futures outlook for May 12, 2016 – Markets are swinging up and down with higher lows off earlier in the week. The result of the test of 2071.5 will once again be key for S&P 500 futures. Currently, sellers are sitting at the level, forcing price down.
Intraday support for S&P 500 futures sits at 2057.5 currently. Momentum continues to be key to watch as price action tries to hold steady at these support regions between 2064.5 and 2067.75. Charts are mixed across stock market futures, but still quite range bound, and that means the edges are being played well.
If we are able to keep the 2071.5 retest, buyers will be more likely to add steam to the retrace upward back into resistance near 2076.25, and 2078.5, before sellers try to force buyers back down again.
Momentum on the four hour chart of S&P 500 futures is bullish but flattening- some choppy action continues to be likely. Congestion of price makes directional breaks somewhat difficult.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Outlook for crude oil futures for May 12, 2016 – EIA reported a 3.8MM draw after the API reported a 3.5MM barrel build the day before, and this created the impetus for the massive bounce event that holds currently into resistance levels now near 46.89 to 47.54. Minor pullbacks on crude oil should continue to be bought under this formation, but thin volume ranges on the move up could create areas that big drops can occur.
The trading range on crude oil suggests support action near 45.74, and resistance behavior near 47.54.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 46.46, or a bounce off 46.74, but watch for resistance after the breach of 46.74, near 46.94, and 47.24. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.46 are 46.74, 46.92, 47.03, 47.47, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 47.86 to 48.15.
Downside trades seem feasible below the failed retest of 46.4, or at the failed retest of 46.84 with negative divergence – careful to watch for higher lows at the short on the resistance level. We are now is a very important congestion zone on larger time frames. Retracement into lower levels from 46.84 give us the targets 46.74, 46.6, 46.24, 45.96, 45.65, 45.29, and perhaps 44.78, 44.57, 44.34, 44.18, and 44.04.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
S&P 500 futures outlook for May 12, 2016 – Trading appears to be quite range bound, and caught near resistance of 2071.5 and 2075.5.
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures will be into resistance, but the best setup sits on the positive retest of 2071.5, or a bounce off 2066.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2066.5 are 2070.75, 2071.25, 2073.25, 2075, 2077.25, 2079.5, 2082.25, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2084.5, 2086.25, and 2088.25.
Downside trades open below the failed retest of 2069.5 or at the failed retest of 2076.25 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2076 gives us the targets 2073.25, 2071.5, 2069.75, 2067.75, 2064.5, 2061.5, 2059.5, 2057.25, 2054.25, 2051.5, and perhaps 2049.5.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
