Long-term bonds are entering a new era. With a new Federal Reserve Chair and uncertainty around the next direction of interest rates, investors can’t rely on predictions alone.
In this Market Minute, I break down what TLT (long-term U.S. Treasury bonds) represents, why investors use it for safety and diversification, and why price action matters most right now.
When rate direction is unclear, the chart becomes your guide.
This episode includes a look at the monthly chart of TLT, highlighting the bigger trend in long bonds and the key levels investors should watch as markets navigate inflation, growth concerns, and Fed policy shifts.
Video:
Topics covered:
• What TLT is and why it matters
• How long bonds react to interest rates
• Why 2026 brings new uncertainty for rates
• Using the monthly chart to guide decisions
• When long bonds may become attractive again
In uncertain rate environments, don’t guess—watch price.
Note that this is different than our other YouTube channel featuring the Economic Modern Family.
That is for financial literacy.
Mish’s Daily of Mish’s Market Minute on the MarketGauge YouTube channel under “shorts” is meant for the more serious self-directed investor.
They do, however, overlap.
Stock Market ETFs Trading Analysis & Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Back to bullish phase and near the highs
Russell 2000 (IWM) 267 is now the place to hold
Dow (DIA) Made another new high and Dow over 50,100
Nasdaq (QQQ) 620 puts this back over the 50-DMA
Regional banks (KRE) Another new multiyear high-sniffs lower rates
Semiconductors (SMH) 402 now support as sister semis is back in the game
Transportation (IYT) Taking a breath at the all-time highs, but still looks amazing
Biotechnology (IBB) Good consolidation probably means higher in store if holds 170
Retail (XRT) First sign of fatigue-not weakness, but still needs 91.25 to clear, and watch 88 to hold
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 58k is the 200-week moving average so no surprise that held. Now, it needs to follow through with a move and a close over 72k
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
