Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is currently navigating a perfect storm:
- Soft device demand- UBS reports U.S. consumer intent to buy an iPhone in the next 12 months has dropped to a five‑year low
- Geopolitical and supply-chain hurdles
- Poor AI response- investors bristled at delays in Siri/Apple Intelligence enhancements
- Rising costs-escalating U.S. import tariffs tied to its China-based supply chain. Apple plans to raise product prices (likely bundled with new features/designs). Those decisions carry risks: higher prices could dampen demand, and sustained cost pressures may limit Apple’s financial flexibility.
These contrasts are why Apple (AAPL) is lagging behind an AI-fueled semis rally.
However, this is APPL. I believe it is still the best mobile phone, and the Apple CarPlay has changed by driving and communicating experience.
Apple reported today that their CarPlay is used more than 600 million times per day!
Apple’s 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC25) is happening from June 9–13.
Will that help?
Looking at the Daily chart (above):
APPL is sitting on the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) trying hard to improve from a bearish phase to a recovery phase.
While APPL has underperformed the SPY for some tme, we are encouraged by the momentum.
The red dots in real motion show a confirmed phase change.
This tells me that a classic 2-closes over the 50-DMA in price could offer a low-risk opportunity for the stock to play some catch up.
Most conservatively, the stock price should clear 206 and hold 200.
The weekly chart is more sobering.
While Real Motion shows a mean reversion to the buy side, the momentum remains in a bearish diversion.
There is significant resistance at the 50-week moving average or around 224.
Plus, should APPL first fail 200 and then 180, the stock could trade down to $150 easily.
The takeaways are:
- Know your timeframe
- Know your risk
- And while semiconductors generally outperform APPL, make sure you watch the sector regardless.
How that sector plays out this week will influence APPL as its weakest link.
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
