We could call this “3 Days to All Hell broke loose.”
We could call this “We told you so.”
We could call this, “Welcome to the incredible forecasting of the Economic Modern Family.”
We could call this, “Hello delusional semiconductors.”
Whatever you wish to call it, the March 6th post called Retail and Regional Banks Will Call the Shots was heard.
From the March 6th Daily:
“The higher rates on T-Bills, CDs and other bank deposits have been attractive for consumers and businesses.
However, that is costly for the US banking industry, already experiencing a slowdown in lending.
And as we know, the Regional Banks character is called Prodigal Son for this very reason-first they (banks) hoard your capital and pay you very little interest, and then they come back asking for forgiveness.”
Here is what Regional Banks looked like 3 days ago.
Closing at $59.55 on March 6th, our warning that the Regional Banks were underperforming the stronger sectors like Semiconductors and could haunt the recent rally, is the power of the Economic Modern Family.
So why did KRE crash hard?
The nail today, was the news on SVB Financial (SIVB) and Silvergate (SI). SIVB fell 60% while SI fell 42%.
SIVB sold off a $21 billion bond portfolio for a huge loss to shore up liquidity.
SI announced liquidation and a wind down, impact from the SBF debacle.
And this is without the strong possibility of more fallout.
One key takeaway.
We like to see all the Economic Modern Family firing in the same direction. Since their creation in 2014, we have often warned that a family in disarray is one that gives us the ultimate risk off signal.
Stock Market ETFs Trading Analysis & Summary:
S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed Distribution Phase-390 pivotal
Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed Distribution Phase-182 pivotal
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed Distribution Phase-324 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) 284 big support 300 pivotal
Regional banks (KRE) Broke the 80-month MA-1st time since Covid
Semiconductors (SMH) 240 pivotal 248 key resistance
Transportation (IYT) Unconfirmed Warning Phase 230 pivotal
Biotechnology (IBB) 125-135 trading range
Retail (XRT) 64.00 the 200-DMA make or break
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.