S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook for June 16, 2016 (ES_F)
The ES continues to show lower highs and lower lows with markets jittery over the EU referendum for Britain leaving on Jun 23, 2016. As a reminder, all classes of options expire this week. And the EU referendum on Jun 23 for GB leaving the EU looms large in uncertainly. A failed bounce higher yesterday for S&P 500 futures gave us the likely test into 2054 this morning, where we still look weak. Below that, we approach another key level near 2046.5 and the 2041.5. Resistance on S&P 500 futures sits near 2074 to 2076.5. Bearish formations are still in charge at this time, and charts still look weak. The futures trading outlook indicates that bounces will likely fail again (read more below).
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P Futures
S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook –
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2060.75, or a positive retest of 2053.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2053.5 are 2057.25, 2060.5, 2064.5, 2066.25, 2067.5, 2068.75, 2071.5, 2073.75, 2075.25, 2076.5, 2078.75, and perhaps 2081.5, and 2082.5, if power shifts to the buyers. We are sitting at another near term support area of 2053.5. Selling pressing will accelerate below 2051, if it does not quickly recover off the test of the level.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2051.75 or at the failed retest of 2062.25 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2062.25 entry, as the chart may be attempting recovery. Retracement into lower levels from 2062.25 gives us the targets 2060.25, 2058.75, 2056.75, 2053.5, 2051.5, 2047.5, and perhaps back to 2046.25, and 2041.5.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
Nasdaq Futures
Outlook for Nasdaq futures for June 16, 2016 (NQ_F) – Nasdaq futures are under negative trend and momentum this morning, but holding a level of support near 4384 seen as key. Bounces are likely to fail here, but if buyers are lurking we may hold the morning lows.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4391.5, or a positive retest of 4378.25 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop in the long opening at 4378.25, as momentum sits in favor of sellers this morning. Targets from 4378.25 are 4384, 4389, 4391.5, 4394.25, 4397.5, 4403.25, 4409.75, 4412.25, 4415.5, 4420.5, 4424.5, 4429.75, 4434.25, 4438.5, 4443.25, 4449.25, and 4454.5. Range expansions above 4454.5 are unlikely under the current momentum conditions.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4378.25 or at the failed retest of 4397.5 with negative divergence. Buyers have tried to stage bounces several times off the lows of the day, but have been unsuccessful in holding price upward. Retracement into lower levels from 4397.5 gives us the targets 4394.5, 4389.5, 4384.75, 4378.75, 4384, 4378.75, 4374, 4367.75, and perhaps 4364.5.
Crude Oil
Crude Oil futures trading outlook for June 16, 2016 (CL_F) – Crude Oil is caught in a battle to hold support near 47.3. A failure there sends us into the region near 46.89 – 46.79, and then a drift into 46.49 if that fails to hold. The chart is vulnerable to sell off below 48 and the failed retest of 48.2 has accelerated the movement.
The trading range on crude oil suggests support action near 46.2, and resistance behavior near 48.2.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 47.79 (as we are likely to see sellers there first), or at a bounce off 47.24 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 47.24 are 47.49, 47.75, 47.97, 48.13, 48.24, 48.43, 48.64, 48.78, and 49.26 to 49.53.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 47.15, or at the failed retest of 47.75 with negative divergence. These setups give us targets from 47.75 into 47.68, 47.4, 47.2, 46.89, 46.49, 46.24, 46.04, and perhaps 45.94 to 45.46.
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As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
