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We last wrote about the US Dollar Index and its popular Power Shares ETF in late October. In that post, we suggested that traders might look for a “base hits” approach to take advantage of medium-sized swings before the larger upward trend reasserts itself.
At that time, the U.S. Dollar Bullish ETF (symbol UUP) had tested support in what we were treating as the first part of a corrective pattern. Thus, we were expecting a substantial bounce but not a skyrocketing move.
Our previous chart showed resistance levels for the expected bounce at 25.75 and 26.10. Last week, price tested the upper of those two levels. It may be time for medium-term traders to take profits from any long positions. Traders working on fast time frames might consider looking for opportunities to short the US Dollar Index or ETF (or simply go long the Euro).
If the Elliott wave count is correct, then it should not be possible for UUP to fall a great deal farther than what we have shown with the path sketched on the chart below. Specifically, price should not breach the 2012 high labeled as wave (i). We’re not expecting a US Dollar Index “crash” – just a resumption of the sideways/downward correction.
A likely price target area for a downward move on the US Dollar ETF (UUP) is between 24.15 and 24.50, with the center line of the channel offering further support in that region. In addition, the cyclical timing technique suggested on the chart may point to the approximate time when the correction can finish. By measuring the duration of wave (ii) and shifting that time increment forward, we see that the next node in this simple cycle occurs early in 2016. The peak of wave (iii) occurred at the halfway point between nodes, lending additional weight to the importance of this cycle for the US Dollar Index.
Elliott wave combined with chart geometry offers a powerful way to predict market turns ahead of most traders in the market. Get timely analysis like this for currencies, bonds, metals and equities by requesting our newsletter and following us on Twitter.
No position in any of the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.