Tag "yield curve analysis"

Is The U.S. Yield Curve Flashing A Sell Signal For Stocks?

We all know about the so-called known risks in the market: valuation, slow growth, corporate earnings, Fed rate hike, China, presidential election, Brexit. Lately, however, there has been some talk in the financial news media and blogosphere about the recent flattening of the U.S. yield curve, which is the flattest…

Curve Ball: Is The Yield Curve Still A Dependable Signal?

Over the last 30 years, there has been a widely held belief, supported by data, in the predictive powers of the “slope” of the yield curve. The slope of the yield curve is a simple calculation comparing interest rates of various maturity terms. Traditionally, the slope of the yield curve…

All Eyes On The Fed As Yield Curve Slips To New Lows

As all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and the FOMC announcement on Thursday, the Treasury market may be deserving a greater focus. Many believe that the Fed wants to see the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries slightly begin to rise, without getting too steep. Tuesday’s decline in bond prices…

Evidence Mounting For A Widening Yield Curve

There has been a lot of debate around interest rates lately. Will they keep rising? Will they turn back lower? But amidst all the chatter about interest rates, most pundits are missing the boat. Today I want to share a few charts that hone in on something that many investors…

Yield Curve Analysis and 2014 Outlook

I wrote to you all last year in February about my forecast that market participants would see some dramatic yield curve steepening this year: And it is my opinion that this will drive the price of 10-year & 30-year bonds down faster than the 2 & 5-year bonds. To take…

Spread Trading Basics For Fed ZIRP Policy

By Alex Bernal    In this article I want to circle back to one of my previous posts on analyzing yield curves and offer up a few insights into spread trading strategies and reading spread charts. I will also highlight my approach to trading spread curve steepening. In my initial blog on…

Yield Curve Signals and the Popular Delusion of the US Long Bond

By Alex Bernal A lot of people have their pet theories on what a steepening or flattening yield curve means for the stock market. From CNBC to Bloomberg, there are no shortages of academic explanations. That said, I have been analyzing and trading the treasury & Eurodollar curve for many years…