Tag "jobs"

Is The Unemployment Rate “Right”?

The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage of the business cycle, and of course monetary policy. These are all critical inputs into the macro backdrop which is of great relevance to most of…

Employment Trends Weakening: 14 Must-See Charts For Investors

On November 4, 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment data for October 2016. Economists rely heavily on employment trends & data to help gauge the health of the economy. Investors believe the data provides valuable insight into the likelihood that the Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy…

Labor Market Momentum Fades As Hiring Cools Down

Key Takeaway: Reported jobs growth fell short of expectations in May, but monthly jobs report data are noisy. Slowing jobs growth and rising compensation may reflect labor supply issues rather than weaker labor demand. Broader measures of labor market health have cooled, and this could keep the Federal Reserve on…

Utility Stocks May Benefit From Weak Jobs Number

Just this past week we found out that U.S. employers added the fewest jobs in May in nearly 6 years. Non-farm payrolls came in a +38K vs the +164K average economists were expecting (lowest coming in at +90K). As many market participants were forecasting for the next rate hike from the…

U.S. Economic Update: Higher Wages A Boon For Workers

Key Takeaway: Job openings are back to record levels and this is giving workers confidence to voluntarily leave their job to look for better opportunity. Higher wages are also being seen and this appears to be relatively broadly-based (and not just in lower-paying industries). The hullabaloo over last Friday’s employment report…

Weak Q1 GDP Growth May Obscure Underlying Economic Strength

Key Takeaway: First quarter GDP growth could fail to meet forecasts, but Q1 weakness in GDP is becoming a recurring theme. Other measures of the economy point to improving conditions or persistent strength. While our recent experience has been over-optimistic forecasts, such has not always been the case. The initial…

The Current State Of The Labor Market: Holding Steady

Key Takeaway: Monthly changes in employment data are mostly noise and do not deserve the attention they get. Longer-term trends show continued (or even increased) strength in the labor market. Both employers and employees are showing increased confidence in the economic recovery. Despite the attention it gets, there is really…

Weekend Market Commentary: US Economy Muddles Into 2016

Big Picture: Surely the markets are happy to be done with 2015. On Thursday we wrapped up the last minutes of trading for the year with a little sell-off. What a gift, Santa remembered the bears! 2015 was very unkind to quite a few Hedge Funds and investors who chose to…

October Jobs Report Marks 61 Consecutive Months Of Gains

The October jobs report surprised nearly everyone, coming in at a very impressive 271,000 jobs created last month. Considering it was also the best month for the S&P 500 in four years, October 2015 was quite the month. Here are some current and historical stats for you. The October jobs…

O Wage Inflation, Where Art Thou?

The labor markets have been improving steadily since th­e financial crisis. Some people would argue that the US is at or near full employment. Even so, there is one piece of the puzzle that is still missing… higher wage inflation. The Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment and stable…