Tag "intermarket analysis"

Is The Bond Market Wrong About The Global Economy?

The September round of flash manufacturing PMIs saw our composite “global flash PMI” rising +0.4pts to 54.7 – the same level it got to in January before ranging as low as 53.9. Looking at the breakdown, all 3 major components were up in September: Eurozone +0.8 to 58.2 USA +0.2…

Are Bonds Flashing A Warning Sign For Stocks?

What Does Fear Look Like? Typically, when markets move into a long-term risk-off phase, the conviction to own defensive-oriented bonds begins to increase relative to the conviction to own growth-oriented stocks. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, the chart below shows trends in bonds (20+ Year Treasury Bond…

Corporate Credit Markets: Party Like It’s 2017!

It has been quite a while since I have written about the state of the corporate bond market. Longtime readers know that I follow the corporate credit markets very closely as the main tell of what drives equity markets. And considering the noise surrounding the markets, it probably a good…

Is Inflation Peaking Or Ready To Blast Off?

As investors tune in for the Federal Reserve today, they will be listening/watching for clues as to their next move and thoughts on the economy.  Interest rates have been climbing and investment portfolios are seeing big moves. Higher interest rates could mean that the economy is on the mend and/or that…

This Fundamental Driver Could Propel Stock Market Higher

The U.S. Dollar Has A Possible Air Pocket Below Support The chart below shows the U.S. Dollar ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP) dating back to late 2013. Notice how the dollar shot up like a hot knife through butter inside the green box. It then consolidated inside the orange box for over a…

Surging Japanese Yen May Carry Consequences For Equities

The Japanese Yen continued its rally with another surge higher last week. Quite frankly, this should be on investors’ radars. Below is a chart of the Japanese Yen vs the S&P 500 Index. The chart was put together with my colleague and research partner Arun Chopra. Here we have used bullet points to…

Silver And The US Dollar Send Bullish Signal To S&P 500

In my last article I outlined why I believe a huge move is brewing for the S&P 500. While I’m patiently waiting for the index to provide greater directional certainty, I’m also looking for setups that may provide clues as to whether it will be the Bulls or Bears who…

Spotting Market Tops With Intermarket Analysis

With the (very) old bull market in the U.S. equities about to complete its seventh year, there is rampant speculation regarding when and how its inevitable end will arrive. As is always the case with bull market tops or major turning points, they frustrate all attempts at prediction. Fundamental analysts…

Intermarket Divergences Highlight Risks For Equity Bulls

When major stock market indices begin following different paths, they can sometimes warn of turbulence ahead. This month, two high-profile U.S. stock indices rallied to new highs while other indices in the U.S. and Europe formed strikingly lower highs – we wrote about the Russell 2000 non-confirmation earlier this month. In…

Bullish Or Bearish Stocks? Here’s What The Charts Are Saying

Probabilities Rather Than Forecasting Long-time followers of CCM know we are not fans of market forecasting, which drags the human desire “to be right” into an already complex investment equation. However, we are big fans of assessing bullish probabilities relative to bearish probabilities based on the hard evidence we have…