Tag "credit default swaps"

The TED Spread Is Dead… Again

The TED spread is something a lot of people were seemingly worried about a few months ago – at least that bearish crowd that provide the public service of perpetual warnings about stocks and such. You wont hear them anymore, by contrast, saying how good things are now that the TED spread…

May 2017 Credit Markets Recap: Big Month For Corporate Bonds

May 2017 was a sufficiently stunning month in the credit markets. And it deserves an update on the litany of data the I laid out in my last update (April Credit Markets Recap). For comparison, I highlighted some key credit markets performance indicators for the month of April and then…

April Credit Markets Recap: The Bull Market Marches On…

April proved to be yet another month of frustration for bears and those, like me, who are simply looking (and hoping) for a stock market pullback large enough to get longer U.S. equities. I have long harped on the notion that the credit markets are, and have been, driving the…

Corporate Credit Markets: Party Like It’s 2017!

It has been quite a while since I have written about the state of the corporate bond market. Longtime readers know that I follow the corporate credit markets very closely as the main tell of what drives equity markets. And considering the noise surrounding the markets, it probably a good…

Credit Markets Update: European Financials Firm After BREXIT

I thought I’d provide a quick update on the credit markets in the aftermath of BREXIT. In particular European financials. The attached chart below shows the price of an index of credit default swaps (CDS) on subordinated debt of European financials, and the price of the iShares MSCI Europe Financials…

Are Credit Markets Signaling More Pain For Stocks?

I have been offering a fair amount of color on the twists and turns of corporate credit and credit derivatives, and their impact on stocks via my Twitter handle (@FZucchi). The skinny is that credit and stocks are behaving in a manner almost identical to the swoon of summer 2011. And,…

Evaluating The Chinese Market Crash: Stocks vs Credit

Chinese stocks have effectively crashed and, given the laughable reliability of the underlying companies’ financials, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Chinese market crash continues lower after a brief pause. That said, Credit Default Swaps highly sensitive to Chinese-related credit so far have yawned over all the equity commotion. As…

Credit Markets Update: Is Something Scary Headed This Way?

With the “big bad event” that was the payroll number out of the way, it’s worth recapping the state of the corporate credit markets particularly in light of some recent moves. First, a quick reminder of why Brian Reynolds (now at New Albion Partners) views corporate bonds and equities as…

Flickering Hope In The Energy Sector: A DeMark View

Over the last couple of weeks I have been tweeting that the credit market for the Energy Sector (and select energy related names) seems to have made a turn for the better, albeit at levels that are still stressed. That sentiment is now spilling over into energy stocks. Looking at…

The Current State Of The Global Credit Markets

Last week I wrote on how I interpret corporate credit and credit derivatives as guideposts for equity markets. In this piece I am going to show you some data to put in perspective where the credit markets currently stand, and, where relevant, how this compares to where we were during…