Stocks & Bonds

Emerging Markets ETFs At Technical Crossroads

Emerging market stocks came alive during the mid-point of 2014 that led to significant relative strength versus domestic equities. However, since topping in September, the Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has pulled back to its 200-day average as it seeks to define the next path forward. VWO is currently sitting…

Point And Figure: Caution, But SPX UpTrend Still Intact

Recently I posted a piece for trend followers using Point and Figure charts to highlight the strength of the S&P 500 (SPX) over the past two years. And wouldn’t you know it, less than two weeks later we got a double bottom sell signal when the SPX printed 1889.51 So does this mean that…

Apple Earnings To Decide Several Key Technical Patterns

Ahead of Q3 earnings after the bell today, Apple (AAPL) is setting up as a technical cliffhanger across multiple timeframes. On a weekly timeframe, AAPL has just broken down from a Symmetrical Triangle back into a harmonic Bearish Bat potential reversal zone (at D, below) it broke above in August. Overthrows above broad-ranging harmonic…

Big Moves Expected in Brazil ETF (EWZ)

The ishares Brazil ETF (EWZ) has a 30 day implied volatility of 70%. This means that the options market is pricing in a move of plus or minus 20% on EWZ within the next month. The precise calculation to find the expected move based on the IV30 percentage is (IV30/sqrt12) ~ (70/3.464)…

Market Capitulation: Did Investment Managers Just Throw In the Towel?

Various sentiment measures are flashing previous levels of fear we’ve seen at recent major lows.  Andrew Nyquist went over a few here, but one more that I’d like to mention is the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index.  This measures the overall equity exposure for active managers….

NYSE Composite Breadth: Deeper Stock Market Correction Ahead

A favorite breadth measure of technicians that’s often cited as we search for clues about the underlying quality of rallies and severity of sell offs is the net quantity of New Highs – New Lows among the 2000 or so components that make up the NYSE Composite Index (NYA). There are…

S&P 500 Moving Averages: Is The Rally Cleared for Liftoff?

No sooner did the S&P 500 (SPX) run above it’s 200-Day Simple Moving Average (it’s 3rd longest streak since 1950) end has market sentiment appeared to finally flip into the much sought-after “excess pessimism” of a short-term capitulation as denoted by such developments as NAAIM’s Exposure Index plunging to single…