Currencies

US Dollar On The Brink?

I’m an avid watcher of the US Dollar. One of the reasons I like to monitor the US Dollar is because it can provide insights as to where other asset classes may be heading. In particular, commodities like Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil often take cues from the Dollar. Typically,…

EUR/USD Pushes Higher Toward Major Technical Decision

EUR/USD smashed higher this morning after Eurostat’s Flash CPI estimate pegged the Euro Area’s annualized inflation rate for a third consecutive reading at 0.8%.  Though less than half the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target rate of 2%, today’s print was higher than forecast and by various accounts perceived as softening recently…

NFP Risk Off? Metals, US Treasuries, Yen On the Uptick

It’s no secret that the much-maligned precious metals complex, belly-to-long end of the US Treasury yield curve and the carry trade-funding Japanese Yen have all been hammered into dust lately.  There’s a complex set of macro variables contributing to the under performance of these and other generically “risk-off” asset classes…

2014: See It Market Insights

From the very beginning, 2014 seems determined to assert its independence from 2013’s steady and timeworn market themes.  Active investors enter the New Year with a Fed finally pulling the trigger on tapering QE: the initial response is risk-positive, but what goes down as larger quantities of the cheap money…

7 Defining Charts for 2014

With everyone offering up lists of 14 for 2014, I decided to follow a less ambitious but still mathematically justified route (2+0+1+4) with a selection of 7 charts for 2014 that are top-of-mind as we enter the trading year. WTI Crude Oil (CL) Continues It’s Broad Consolidation of 2008’s crash…

The Japanese Yen: Making History

What if I told you the Japanese Yen is the most heavily long-term oversold it has been in a generation? In the post-WWII era, the Yen was pegged at a fixed exchange rate to the US Dollar at a ratio of 360:1 (so $USDJPY 360) beginning in 1949.  After the…

Japanese Yen: In Extremis or About to Bottom?

If there’s any trade that has been more persuasive and irrepressible in 2013 than Developed Market equities, it’s the short Japanese Yen (JPY) trade.  Just like the S&P 500 (SPX), JPY hasn’t been so persistently one-sided since 1995. Back then – and again in the mid-2000s – the short JPY…

2014 Market Cycle Forecasts

As the annual market cycle is coming to a close, I have been feverishly working to analyze the upcoming cycle forecasts for key commodities and select asset classes. With this in mind, I thought it would be beneficial to share with you the 2014 market cycle forecasts for many key…

Forex: USD/JPY Breakout

The 2013 consolidation is over: or so it seems. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke higher immediately after Tokyo’s session opened last night, with the Yen selling off hard to continue Friday’s reflexive rally and quickly dispatching the 99.41 high put in last Thursday. USD/JPY Breakout – 1-Hour: Establishes a Higher…

EUR/USD Analysis: Multi-Time Frame View Points Lower

With the Euro debt crisis at an ebb, a European Central Bank on hold the last few meetings and major oil and gold volatility against the backdrop of a more ambivalent Federal Reserve, the US Dollar (DX) has enjoyed a healthy share of notoriety while the EUR/USD has languished somewhat in…