Tag "gdp growth"

Are Bonds Bottoming? Here Are 3 Things To Watch For

For weeks now, it looks like I have been wrong on my long bonds positions: the 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) and the Vanguard Extended Duration Bond Fund (EDV). And I have been! But that may be changing. Specifically, the turn may have occurred last Thursday when TLT closed up…

Q1 US GDP Growth Turns Negative: A Ray Of Light For Bonds?

The initial ‘advanced’ US GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2015 estimated that the economy grew at 0.2%. The second revision based on more accurate numbers indicated that in the first quarter the US gross domestic product actually contracted instead of growing; the number showed no growth and…

Past 10 Years Of U.S. GDP Growth Reveal Disturbing Trend

The major economic release last week was the second estimate of 2014’s fourth quarter and annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is “a measure of the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes.” The ‘first’ estimate that came out last…

4th Quarter GDP Report Shows Growth Slowing

Earlier today, the markets received word that 4th quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.6% to 2.2%. The 4th quarter GDP report was previously thought to be much higher (due to a strong 3rd quarter) before coming down over the past 2 months. The revised 4th quarter GDP number continues…

3 Reasons The Aging Bull Market Is Running Out Of Steam

When you are managing your retirement portfolio, it makes sense to keep tabs on the economic factors that have reliable correlation to long term investment performance. Future stock market returns looking out 10 years or more are inversely related to market valuations. A low valuation implies higher long term returns…

How Much Future GDP Has Been Stolen By Fed ZIRP?

A few months ago, an entity I’ve been associated with was contemplating a major purchase to replace an older piece of machinery. The current asset was certainly usable and far from obsolete, but the “research” undertaken to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a new model proved a bit startling. The scrutiny…

Are U.S. GDP Growth Estimates Still Too High?

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made headlines recently by joining the chorus of analysts that have reduced the rosy outlook for the U.S. economy in 2014. The IMF reduced its U.S. GDP growth estimate to 2%, down from a 2.8% prediction as recently as April….