Tag "gdp growth"

Past 10 Years Of U.S. GDP Growth Reveal Disturbing Trend

The major economic release last week was the second estimate of 2014’s fourth quarter and annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is “a measure of the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes.” The ‘first’ estimate that came out last month showed the economy growing 2.6% in the 4th quarter. This ‘second’ estimate (based on ‘more complete source data than was

4th Quarter GDP Report Shows Growth Slowing

Earlier today, the markets received word that 4th quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.6% to 2.2%. The 4th quarter GDP report was previously thought to be much higher (due to a strong 3rd quarter) before coming down over the past 2 months. The revised 4th quarter GDP number continues to show a stagnant economy, with slowing growth. The politicians like to take a single number for a quarter and

3 Reasons The Aging Bull Market Is Running Out Of Steam

When you are managing your retirement portfolio, it makes sense to keep tabs on the economic factors that have reliable correlation to long term investment performance. Future stock market returns looking out 10 years or more are inversely related to market valuations. A low valuation implies higher long term returns and a high valuation historically leads to diminished portfolio returns. Peek into Warren Buffet’s investment playbook. He has an extremely

How Much Future GDP Has Been Stolen By Fed ZIRP?

A few months ago, an entity I’ve been associated with was contemplating a major purchase to replace an older piece of machinery. The current asset was certainly usable and far from obsolete, but the “research” undertaken to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a new model proved a bit startling. The scrutiny to purchase fell to a simple analysis: that there was enough money available to make the purchase sitting in cash-equivalent

Parsing The FOMC Minutes: Why A Rate Hike May Be Coming In 1H 2015

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their last meeting, sending the market into its typical tizzy. Initially the market was down on rate hike concerns, but moments later it was up on an expanding economy and improving labor market. Yep, Mr. Market is going to do what he’s going to do and let everyone else spin it for what they think is going on. But behind the speculation,

Fed Agenda? Why The Reaction To Q2 GDP Is Worth Watching

On Wednesday morning, Investors will be greeted by 2nd quarter GDP data. As of right now, it is not a matter of whether there was Q2 GDP growth, but how much. And this has put the Fed (and economists and investors) in a bit of a pickle.  Perhaps this is why the capital markets are acting up of late… Yesterday, fellow contributor Andrew Kassen and I talked about the upcoming

Melting Up: How Will A Positive 2nd Quarter GDP Print Impact Stocks?

Are Q1’s Frigid Economic Performance And Resulting Fears of Recession About to Thaw in Light of a Sunny 2nd Quarter GDP Print? Will the Market Warm to a Positive Report; or Could July’s Gains Melt Away Instead? At 8:30 a.m. ET this Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release it’s Advance GDP reading for April-June 2014, the first of three monthly reports covering 2nd Quarter GDP. Despite Q1’s

Are U.S. GDP Growth Estimates Still Too High?

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made headlines recently by joining the chorus of analysts that have reduced the rosy outlook for the U.S. economy in 2014. The IMF reduced its U.S. GDP growth estimate to 2%, down from a 2.8% prediction as recently as April. Economists started the year predicting that that U.S. GDP would grow at a 3-3.5% annual rate. And they have been

Snowpocalypse Now: Why Resilient Q2 GDP Estimates May Be Fantasy

In spite (no, actually because of) last week’s flatlined +0.1% Q1 Advance GDP Growth reading (published by the BEA here), Goldman Sachs’ Kris Dawsey announced in a note to clients that the firm anticipates “a solid bounce-back in activity in Q2″, aggressively pushing their estimate for next month’s Preliminary reading “up to 3.9%.” A +3.8% swing in quarter-over-quarter GDP growth is uncommon enough; but that doesn’t quite cover it.  Citing

Fed Tapers While GDP Slows: Not So New-sy

On the same day that investors received confirmation that the economy slowed to a crawl (advance Q1 GDP logged in at +0.1), they also received word that the fed taper will continue with the Federal Reserve tapering its bond buying program by another $10 billion per month. Here’s Pedro da Costa having some fun on twitter with the meaning of “taper.” ta·per ˈtāpər/noun: taper; plural noun: tapers 1. a slender