I am a quantitative-discretionary trader. I have made it one of my life’s goals to understand how financial markets move, to understand how to predict those movements, and to understand the limits of what can be predicted. Much of what I write focuses on these ideas and the reality of the marketplace, and I have often been very critical of much of traditional technical analysis and on trading methods that
Tag "active investing"
I have tried to share real life trading lessons in previous columns, and this week’s entire Ukraine-Crimea-Russia quick roller-coaster provided for another entry in my series: When and how do you trade Conviction vs. Rules? More or less, this would qualify as one of those trading lessons on discipline. You can find some of my prior columns here: Insights Into a Rough Month of Trading: Like a Botched Football Game
Back in January, I wrote about Retail Sector underperformance and why it was worth watching. It turned out to be a good “tell” of what was to come for the equity markets as the S&P 500 ended up correcting over a 100 points to a low of 1738. Since that low, the S&P 500 has gone on to rally right back to near all time highs, while the Retail Index
As many readers are aware, I’m a big investor psychology guy. I believe that the more you understand your psychological make up and skills set, the more consistent your baseline will be for risk management. And I suspect most active investors will agree with the following statement: managing risk effectively is a major force behind consistent investment returns. But like I said, you have to be in tune with yourself.
Last week, with the market sitting on the edge of a deeper pullback, I posted an update about the importance of 1770 as S&P 500 technical support for active investors. Well, 1770 gave way on Monday, and opened the doors for a drop down to 1737 (lower wedge line support). This brought the pullback to just over 6% on the S&P 500. And nearly in lock-step, fellow SIM contributor Andrew Kassen
Just as traders were readying for some follow through to the downside, stocks put in a strong performance Thursday, erasing all of Wednesday’s losses. The S&P 500 now finds itself back near 1800. And the price action has all the markings of a classic bull-bear battle. Its S&P 500 technical support vs resistance. Toe to toe. Okay, a bit dramatic, but it’s late and I’m overdue for some cheesiness. Point is,
Investors found themselves a bit unsure heading into the Facebook earnings report. After touching its 20 week moving average on Monday, Facebook (FB) rallied a bit, before dipping into its earnings report. All told, this was actually quite a feat… especially when you consider that many investors are becoming cautious on the market as a whole. In this type of environment, high beta, high P/E stocks often fall out of favor as
Gold prices are retreating this morning from a very important technical intersection around $1275/oz. Currently priced around $1260, I believe active investors will need to see gold prices rise above 1275 for the yellow metal to gain traction. As you can see in the chart below, Gold prices are putting in a near-term rally. This rally has taken prices to the November “breakdown” area, and up as high as its
A few weeks ago, I wrote a post about Apple (AAPL) and the importance of the AAPL uptrend line. Fast forward to today, and this critical support is still holding… and it’s still important. Why? Well, for one, uptrends are a psychological level for investors. Although “shakeouts” can occur near heavily watched price levels (i.e. false breakdowns), it is usually a sign to abort near-term trades when a trend line
Whether the market pulls back, trades sideways, or just keeps trucking higher, the economy is steadily improving. So it’s a good time to follow where the money is flowing in order to be ready when future opportunities present themselves (i.e. a stock market correction – read my latest post on the coming market pullback). With this in mind, where might investors look for ideas? Perhaps select mining stocks. Economy Expands