S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook for August 17, 2016 (Broad Overview) – With the FOMC minutes release today, the stock market should remain a bit quiet into the release. We began the morning essentially flat but have since turned negative. S&P 500 futures failed at 2181 so that will serve as price resistance today.
A breach above 2181 will likely take us to the top of congestion near 2186.5 and potentially up to 2191-2193. Timid trading continues. Price momentum is drifting lower, suggesting that the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is likely to test lower price support levels. Price support has drifted down to 2170.5. Another area of thin market auction is between 2165.25 and 2168.75.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading August 17 – ES_F Chart
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable trading setups sit on the positive retest of 2181, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2175.5 with upward momentum. If we spike downward into 2165.75, it should prove out as a bounce zone, as well. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2175.5 are 2180, 2182.25, 2184, 2186.5, 2189.5, 2191.5, 2193.25, and if we expand, we may stretch above into 2196.75 and 2198.75. Breakouts that hold seem very unlikely in this environment.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable trading setups sit below the failed retest of 2175, or at the failed retest of 2183 with negative divergence. Keep your eyes on the lookout for higher lows developing intraday. Retracement into lower levels from 2183 gives us the targets 2180.5, 2177.5, 2175.25, 2173.5, 2169.75, 2164.5, 2161.5, 2157.5, and 2153.5, if sellers take over.
If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.
Nasdaq Futures
The NQ_F retraced three days of upside movement to drift into 4789.5 in the early morning. Momentum has now drifted negative, suggesting that bounces will be sold at key resistance levels. Support sits at 4786. Below that, we see congestion near 4776 -4767.5 that will serve as lower support. Resistance is lower today, between 4813.75-4824.75, with a breach that could stretch into 4832, if buyers try to recapture gains. Pay attention to lower highs or lower lows developing, as this could signal a continuation of what appears to be in a rollover event into lower support.
Upside trades in Nasdaq futures trading – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4802.75, or a positive retest of 4790.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4790.5 are 4796.5, 4802.75, 4808, 4812.25, 4816.25, 4818.25, 4822.75, 4824.5, 4826.25, 4830, 4835.75, 4838, and 4842.5, if buyers continue the rally north.
Downside trades in Nasdaq futures trading – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4795, or at the failed retest of 4808 with negative divergence (particularly important here). Retracement into lower levels from 4808 gives us the targets 4802.25, 4796.5, 4793.25, 4790.25, 4785.5, 4781.5, 4776.75, and 4772.5 to 4766.5, if sellers resume control.
Crude Oil
EIA releases information today at 10:30am. API yesterday showed a draw on crude, build in distillates. Oil finished its run just shy of our top target near 46.78 – at 46.73, before backing down into support at 46.04. Lower support holds at 45.54. Resistance sits near 46.73, with 47.05 above that.
Trading ranges for crude oil should hold between 45.54 and 47.05 today. Big range expansions should fade in this environment, but we are running back up into the morning numbers as we stand here.
Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 46.56, or at a positive retest off 46.08 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.08 are 46.28, 46.5, 46.73, 46.92, 47.05, and the outside chance that we see 47.45, if buyers power forward.
Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 46.14, or at the failed retest of 46.73 with negative divergence. There is also a short sitting at range expansion into 46.92, but that would need quite a bit of divergent action on the stretch forward. Targets from 46.73 are 46.56, 46.37, 46.24, 46.07, 45.87, 45.67, 45.52, 45.42, 45.22, 45.08, 44.97, 44.74, 44.47, 44.24, and 43.86, if sellers really resume control.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
