After another week of selling off the 2015 highs, traders need to regroup and focus on what they can control. Trading isn’t an easy endeavor, so we must do our best to tune out the noise.
Here are 10 insights into the trading action on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for traders.
1. SPY is still in a range bound price zone, and is being traded and not accumulated or distributed in any meaningful way.
2. Last week the all-time high resistance level held and the market reversed back into the trading range.
3. SPY made lower highs and lower lows for four straight days.
4. The SPY reached all-time highs on very low volume, and then went down on increasing volume each day afterwards.
5. The New York Stock Exchange showed 26% declines and 71% advances in stocks Friday. New highs were 34 and new lows were 411 (showing very weak breadth) with the vast majority ticking lower. This is bearish for stocks.
6. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing weak price action at 44.39 and could fall lower before a bounce.
7. The MACD is still reading bullish, but rolling over with momentum after last week’s drop in prices.
8. I would not consider momentum long signals unless SPY closes back over the 50 day SMA.
9. The two key high probability bounce levels for dip buys that I will be watching, are the 30 RSI and the 200 day SMA.
10. The best opportunity in this market is selling short on a strong move upward, and buying the deep dips into key long term support zones. It is a swing traders market. This is not the trend we are looking for.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Daily Chart
Twitter: @SJosephBurns
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The author does not have a position in any mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
