US Markets

April US Existing Home Sales Soften; Price Nears 2006 Peak

April US Existing Home Sales soften M/M Price Only Five Percent Away From July 2006 Peak US existing home sales fall 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in April. March, however, was revised higher to 5.21 million from the previous 5.19 million. Depending on how one looks at it, there is both good and bad in the April numbers. Year-over-year, sales have now increased for

Buckle Up: Bond Market Phase Transition Will Be Volatile

Have you ever noticed how the pace of water flow seems to increase as it approaches a waterfall? If you watch a leaf floating on the water you will notice that is starts to accelerate slowly when there is a drop ahead. And once it gets close to the drop it accelerates rapidly. Scientists refer to this as a phase transition and many forward thinkers are using this illustration for

Evidence Mounting For A Widening Yield Curve

There has been a lot of debate around interest rates lately. Will they keep rising? Will they turn back lower? But amidst all the chatter about interest rates, most pundits are missing the boat. Today I want to share a few charts that hone in on something that many investors aren’t talking about today: the prospects for a widening yield curve. And this may be building with the divergence of the

Dow Jones Transports: Is This Parabolic Move Topping?

The Dow Jones Transports are getting a lot of attention here, and rightly so. They are trading pretty heavy and have been a key ingredient to this incredible ride higher. After reaching 52 week highs late last year, the Transports have traded sideways to lower for 6 months. This looks like it could be a topping pattern. Careful here. To be honest, I’m not even sure what comprises the Dow Jones Transportation Average

Are Unemployment Claims Nearing An Inflection Point?

The U.S. economy continues to churn out mixed messages. The retail sales number on Wednesday was an outright dud. Sales in April were flat month-over-month, against expectations for a 0.2-percent gain. With that, sales are now down to flat in four of the last five months. Sales peaked at $441.4 billion last November, and were $436.8 billion in April. The three-month average has been decelerating since last December, with year-over-year

Bonds Continue To Sell Off, But Risk-Reward Getting Better

I devoted last week’s market commentary to explaining the incredible volatility that has been occurring in bond yields. I explained that volatility associated with trading bonds has increased dramatically. The 10-year German Bund saw a 514% increase in yield in just 8 trading days! It moved 25% in one 32 minute period. German yields have declined since the day of that flash crash but remain elevated. The flash crash in Europe

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Into Chart Resistance (10 Observations)

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has provided some opportunities for patience, disciplined traders, while it has punished momentum chasers. One reason has been its propensity to get rejected at its upper end of the range during 2015 (i.e. technical resistance). Below is a chart showing the trading action in 2015 for the S&P 500 (SPY). Further down is a list of 10 trading observations about the price action here. 1.

The April Jobs Report: Insights Into Wages And Productivity

U.S. wages stuck in the mud, more so for supervised employees than for supervisory. ECI for private sector has been trending higher since 1Q14; is this sustainable? Productivity is crucial for employers ability to absorb wage hikes. If there is one consistency in the current U.S. recovery, it is the lack of progress as relates to wages. Year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings of private employees has consistently been capped