US Markets

Is The Stock Market Starting To Show Some Cracks?

Last week saw a spike in stock market volatility. The S&P 500 finally had a move +/- 1%, ending the run of 62 days of below average volatility.  What looked like the beginning of a correction on Thursday quickly reversed itself on Friday when it closed less than one half of a percent below its all-time-high of 1,985. Still, the trending indicator that I use to determine the intermediate trend

Asset Managers Hint At Return Of Retail Investors

Last month I proposed the hypothesis that behind the divergent signals we’ve been seeing in the market are retail investors (small business owners and middle class), who did not participate in much of the great 2013 uptrend. In recent months, social media has attempted to reconcile the buoyant equities market with an uneven economic landscape. I would like to take this another step further and look at what the flow of

Stocks Shake Off Losses But Risk Aversion On Watch

As U.S. equities prepared for a gap down at the open, investors were greeted with an assortment of headlines blaming anything from worries about weak earnings to a slowing global economy. But now that the market has battled back by mid-day, the headlines are shifting to highlight overblown fears.  Worth a chuckle, as we still have two hours to go and plenty of time for more back and forth. The bottom line is

Risk Off? Stocks, FX Carry Falter As USTs, Gold Find Bid

Following broadly-shared but contained losses across Asian bourses overnight, major asset classes assumed a cautious tone after European market centers opened earlier this morning, trading sideways to slightly down. Then ater the NY open at 0800ET, risk aversion kicked in more aggressively, escalating around 0930ET with the 10-Year Note and Gold bid as stocks tumbled and in-flows picked for the Japanese Yen. Here’s a snapshot of how things are evolving/devolving

The Week Ahead: Market Recap And Overview

Last week the payroll number came in higher than expected and the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average set new all-time highs. As I write this on Monday morning we are seeing the markets retreat about 0.3%. The trending indicators still show the market has more room to go higher. But this doesn’t mean I’m comfortable, or that investors should become complacent! Volume continues to be light and

Investor Questions: Trying To Solve The 2014 Financial Market Riddle

Entering 2014’s second half, a number of investor questions and random thoughts are swirling around in my head. In an effort to put together some of the market’s puzzle pieces, and to try to get a grasp on an increasingly difficult environment to decipher (and invest in), I’m asking myself a number of market-related questions. And I’d be curious to know yours as well. Here’s my list: Can you remember

Could Q1′s Terrible GDP Actually Mean More Upside For Stocks?

Following last week’s Final Q1 2014 GDP Print at a staggering – but by many accounts, transitory – -2.96%, the gentlemen at J. Lyons Fund Management (JLFMI) took up the task of checking the number against the 25 Worst Quarterly U.S. GDP Prints In History. A couple interesting datapoints emerged: Q1 2014′s GDP was the 17th worst (in 2009 dollars) since quarterly records began in 1947. Q1 2014′s GDP is the

U.S. Dollar Under Pressure: Geopolitics Loom Large

While America sleeps, we continue to lose financial ground to those determined to unseat the monopoly of the U.S. currency. Take for example The People’s Republic of China’s Central Bank’s recent announcement that boosted the United Kingdom’s bid to be a center for offshore trading of Chinese currency. This should not escape your notice as you look at business news headlines. This article further illustrates the gains that are being

Are U.S. GDP Growth Estimates Still Too High?

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made headlines recently by joining the chorus of analysts that have reduced the rosy outlook for the U.S. economy in 2014. The IMF reduced its U.S. GDP growth estimate to 2%, down from a 2.8% prediction as recently as April. Economists started the year predicting that that U.S. GDP would grow at a 3-3.5% annual rate. And they have been

3 Reasons Emotions Are Running High Into FOMC Statement

The tension on the tape is building. Like it or not, many active investors are bracing for the reaction to the FOMC statement today (set to release at 2pm ET). Bulls and bears are in an epic stare down, and for this reason it’s probably best for traders to sit this one out. Especially if you’re losing sleep over your positions. The build up is pretty typical, but today’s release