US Markets

Is The 10 Year Treasury Yield Set To Go Higher?

After bottoming on January 30th, the 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) rallied sharply along side equities for much of February before pausing into March. That rally was set up by an RSI divergence and an undercut of the lows. The recent pause following the rally has taken the shape of a classic consolidation “handle”.  But with the February NFP Jobs Report coming on Friday, that could be too “easy”. So how

Past 10 Years Of U.S. GDP Growth Reveal Disturbing Trend

The major economic release last week was the second estimate of 2014’s fourth quarter and annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is “a measure of the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes.” The ‘first’ estimate that came out last month showed the economy growing 2.6% in the 4th quarter. This ‘second’ estimate (based on ‘more complete source data than was

GoPro Stock (GPRO) Nearing Key Technical Support Level

GoPro’s stock (GPRO) has definitely been taking it on the chin of late. Each bounce has been sold as investors have slowly deflated the IPO euphoria from the stock. The pullback off the highs wasn’t a surprise – I called the top in October – but depth of the pullback has been a bit eye-opening. With the stock trading at around $40 per share, and well off its post-IPO highs, it’s once again

Corn Prices Holding Steady In Face Of Higher Dollar

For the past 6 months, I’ve been constructive on Corn prices. And last winter, it separated itself from the other grains by rallying in the face of a stronger US Dollar. This past week was like a fractal of late last year, with spot Corn prices up 1.55%. Other grains were up as well, with Soybeans jumping 2.9% and Wheat 0.3%. But Corn has stood out as the leader of this pack. Both

4th Quarter GDP Report Shows Growth Slowing

Earlier today, the markets received word that 4th quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.6% to 2.2%. The 4th quarter GDP report was previously thought to be much higher (due to a strong 3rd quarter) before coming down over the past 2 months. The revised 4th quarter GDP number continues to show a stagnant economy, with slowing growth. The politicians like to take a single number for a quarter and

Bonds Catch A Bid As U.S. Economic Data Remains Soft

Last week, my weekly commentary on the financial markets started with this paragraph: “The last two weeks the markets have rallied to new all-time highs. At the same time we have seen the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increase from a low of 1.6% to 2.15% yesterday. That is a meaningful loss in the bond positions that have been working for the last 3-4 months. “ At that time,

Apple Closes Higher: AAPL Price Target Within Reach

Back in November I shared a chart of Apple (AAPL) showing its upside potential based on its long-term uptrend channel and October breakout to new highs. At that time, it was trading at $109 and I made the case for a potential AAPL price target of $150 based on a confluence of uptrend resistance and a Fibonacci breakout extension level. I’ve been tracking that Apple chart and providing updates on

Market Set To Test Major S&P 500 Fibonacci Extension Level

Last week, investors watched the S&P 500 grind higher, pushing the index into unchartered territory: the land of all time highs. And with the major stock market indices pushing higher in unison, it has many wondering what will stop this bull? Well, there are a few levels to watch over the near-term, and especially for traders. And each has to do with S&P 500 fibonacci extension levels. However, one is a

SP 500 Correction Ahead? Putting Recent Pullbacks In Perspective

Over the past few months, the stock market has seen a few swings. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise. Back in August of 2014, I wrote a research note on the S&P 500 and the lack of a “technical correction.” In stock market lingo, a correction from current highs is generally considered to be -10%, while a pullback is generally less. At that time, the past 4 pullbacks averaged just over 4

Why Crude Oil Production and Prices Do Not Bode Well For Stocks

As I mentioned in my weekly market commentary, the stock market’s bull case is that oil has bottomed. Never mind that the Bull’s case was that Crude Oil at $125 a barrel was also a bull catalyst. The bottom line to me, though, is that I don’t believe that Crude Oil prices have bottomed yet… and I think they will most likely drop another 25% or more from current levels. As the chart