Market News & Insights

4th Quarter GDP Report Shows Growth Slowing

Earlier today, the markets received word that 4th quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.6% to 2.2%. The 4th quarter GDP report was previously thought to be much higher (due to a strong 3rd quarter) before coming down over the past 2 months. The revised 4th quarter GDP number continues to show a stagnant economy, with slowing growth. The politicians like to take a single number for a quarter and

Bonds Catch A Bid As U.S. Economic Data Remains Soft

Last week, my weekly commentary on the financial markets started with this paragraph: “The last two weeks the markets have rallied to new all-time highs. At the same time we have seen the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increase from a low of 1.6% to 2.15% yesterday. That is a meaningful loss in the bond positions that have been working for the last 3-4 months. “ At that time,

Apple Closes Higher: AAPL Price Target Within Reach

Back in November I shared a chart of Apple (AAPL) showing its upside potential based on its long-term uptrend channel and October breakout to new highs. At that time, it was trading at $109 and I made the case for a potential AAPL price target of $150 based on a confluence of uptrend resistance and a Fibonacci breakout extension level. I’ve been tracking that Apple chart and providing updates on

Market Set To Test Major S&P 500 Fibonacci Extension Level

Last week, investors watched the S&P 500 grind higher, pushing the index into unchartered territory: the land of all time highs. And with the major stock market indices pushing higher in unison, it has many wondering what will stop this bull? Well, there are a few levels to watch over the near-term, and especially for traders. And each has to do with S&P 500 fibonacci extension levels. However, one is a

SP 500 Correction Ahead? Putting Recent Pullbacks In Perspective

Over the past few months, the stock market has seen a few swings. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise. Back in August of 2014, I wrote a research note on the S&P 500 and the lack of a “technical correction.” In stock market lingo, a correction from current highs is generally considered to be -10%, while a pullback is generally less. At that time, the past 4 pullbacks averaged just over 4

Why Crude Oil Production and Prices Do Not Bode Well For Stocks

As I mentioned in my weekly market commentary, the stock market’s bull case is that oil has bottomed. Never mind that the Bull’s case was that Crude Oil at $125 a barrel was also a bull catalyst. The bottom line to me, though, is that I don’t believe that Crude Oil prices have bottomed yet… and I think they will most likely drop another 25% or more from current levels. As the chart

German DAX Pushes Higher: Currency Hedged ETF Outperforming

The German DAX Composite (DAX) has been in a strong uptrend since bottoming last October at 8354.97. During its resurgence, the DAX ran into resistance at the 10000 area (10093.03 to be specific) before continuing higher. This new leg higher has taken the index to the 11000 area where it has been consolidating in a tight range – you can see this in the contracting Bollinger bands. A trading range of

Why Home Depot’s Stock Has Been So Strong

Although the US economic recovery has been anything but vibrant, there are plenty of fundamental reasons to give for the recent strength in Home Depot’s stock price. Think lower gas prices, lower interest rates, stable housing, stable unemployment… and better earnings and growth. Even the most frugal will spend some money to update their house (especially if they are doing it themselves). But I’m also a believer that the fundamentals

Global Market Trends: Why Deflation Is Still A Concern

Over the last two weeks the US Equity markets have rallied to new all-time highs. At the same time we have seen the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increase from a low of 1.6% to 2.15% yesterday. That is a meaningful loss in the bond positions that have been working for the last 3-4 months. What has caused the recent change in market direction and where do we go

Gold Ends Higher: Will GLD Reversal Set Up A Tradable Rally?

Gold futures dropped sharply this morning, hitting a low of 1197 and taking the Gold ETF (GLD) down with it. In the process, GLD broke through a backtest support line. By all accounts, this looked like a continuation day to the downside. BUT, something interesting happened: there was a big GLD reversal. And this reversal could setup a tradable rally. So what set up this GLD reversal and what do we