Market News & Insights

Capital Markets Recap: Fed, Dollar, Geopolitics In Spotlight

July was an eventful month on the political and economic front, as the conflict in the Ukraine was joined in the headlines by renewed U.S. involvement in Iraq. The Fed continued to unwind QE and is on pace to conclude all ‘money-printing’ within a few months. Stocks drifted slightly lower, as did bonds. Here is what happened in the capital markets, by the numbers: Stocks & Bonds In July the

Gold Rangebound: Dollar, Equities Pressuring Yellow Metal

The headline number on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is that it has gained 6.79% so far in 2014. However, the reality is that gold bullion hasn’t gained a dime in over six months. Since February 12, GLD has been mired in a roller coaster sideways trading range that has yet to resolve in a bullish or bearish trend. In fact, if you look closely at the chart over the

3 Reasons The SPX Is Still A Dip Buyers Market

At these heights, I feel hesitant to argue that there aren’t any technical warning signs for equities. But that’s the case: none of the measures of trend, momentum or internal data that I monitor for the S&P 500 have turned bearish… yet. So once again, we’ll likely see dip buyers emerge. Here are three stock market measures that I am monitoring: Trend - The record highs this week confirmed a crowd willingness to buy

Will Draghi Take Action In September?

The odds for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to add additional monetary measures to help boost the European economy are starting to tick higher with each and every weak economic data release. And I believe he will likely act in September. Take for example the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the European Union. This index has been below 0, which represents worse than expected economic data, since late March. And

Has Silver Lost Its Luster? 2 Key Fibonacci Levels To Watch

To get a better idea of what’s happening with Silver, let’s start with a long-term view of price history. From the low of $3.92 in 1993 to the high of $49.82 in 2011, price increased by a massive +1170.91% (a +12 bagger) with +493.09% of the move occurring in just 30 months from October 2008 to April 2011. In the 2o year chart below (through 2013), you can see that there

Are Wheat Futures Putting In A Bullish Reversal?

Back in May, I wrote a post about a high ranking short opportunity in Wheat Futures (ZW). And now that the downside has run its course, I would like to revisit the chart and point out an interesting harmonic pattern that is emerging again in Wheat. Two things stand out to me in the chart below: 1) Wheat Futures confirmed a Bullish Shark Pattern. 2) A reverse head and shoulders pattern is

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) At Key Technical Resistance

The speed of the recovery from the decline in U.S. equities from late July to early August affirms it’s still a dip-buying environment. The market is telling you to stay long with discipline. As is often the case, the market-unsavvy did well this time by holding their holdings and going on vacation. And as I look across the universe of exchange traded products, iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) jumps out

Parsing The FOMC Minutes: Why A Rate Hike May Be Coming In 1H 2015

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their last meeting, sending the market into its typical tizzy. Initially the market was down on rate hike concerns, but moments later it was up on an expanding economy and improving labor market. Yep, Mr. Market is going to do what he’s going to do and let everyone else spin it for what they think is going on. But behind the speculation,

Did Corn Prices Just Bottom?

Lots of interesting dynamics at play for grain commodities right now. In short, the past 3 months haven’t been kind to Corn, Wheat, and to a lesser extent, Soybeans. But each of them is trying to put in a bottom.  Corn in particular has struggled to gain traction, but perhaps the sideways price movement that forms a rounded bottom is part of the frustration that wears out investors and sparks

S&P 500: More Rally Ahead? Watch This Level

This is the question.  Is there more rally ahead for stocks over the near-term?  As a technical analyst, I prefer to follow price. So let’s see what investors are looking at today and in the days ahead. The bounce from 1900 wasn’t entirely unexpected; myself and other technicians had been eyeing that level for several days leading up to the overnight puncture of 1900 on the e-mini futures heading into