Commodities

Historic Rally In Crude Oil Prices Set Up By Bullish Wick

Just two months ago, the 2-month rolling return for Crude Oil prices was -40% (see point (1) in chart below). At that time, Crude Oil had declined almost $70 in the past 9 months, trading near $45/barrel. Many people were predicting that Crude Oil was not near a low and some were thinking the $20 range would come quickly. Well look what happened. Crude Oil has gained 41% in the past 2 months,

Silver Price Targets For Current Corrective Wave Higher

Silver prices have gotten a boost lately so I think it’s time to provide an update on what the charts are saying. But today I’m going to do something a little different and actually start from a shorter time frame to demonstrate why I think (the operative word “think” – not – “know”) that this move in Silver will go higher in over near term BUT ultimately make it back

COT Report: US Treasuries Get The Jitters, US Dollar Longs Decline

The following is a recap of The COT Report (Commitment Of Traders) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of May 12, 2015. Note that the change is week-over-week. 10-Year Treasury Note: If we just focus on weekly closing prices, one would think that the 10-year yield had a boring week – closing essentially flat. But nothing could be further from the

Top Trading Links: A Big Move Is Coming

You know that college football game where the underdog hangs with the highly ranked opponent until midway through the third quarter before the better team physically overpowers them and pulls away? That’s what this market feels like. Bulls are just running the ball and taking the fight out of the bears. Interestingly the tone of the blogosphere hasn’t been so positive. Lots of great investing research and trading ideas in

Gold Prices Higher: But Advance Likely To Be Volatile

With the US Dollar down nearly 7 percent from its highs, one would think Gold and Silver would be off to the races. Well, they are moving higher, but not exactly racing. Silver has seen a bit more pop than Gold, but that’s to be expected due to its higher beta. Note that I highlighted the trading setup in Silver last week (and I just sold my trading position there).

Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Chart Says Rally May Be Brewing

The stock market has been hovering near all-time highs for months but hasn’t been able to breakout. If the stock market doesn’t get going soon, it could head lower. And should that happen, investors will be looking for somewhere to put there month. For several years, investors have moved quickly to bonds. But perhaps this time could see a capital move to the Gold Miners ETF (GDX). As you can

COT Report: Traders Make Moves In Equities And Treasuries

The following is a recap of The COT Report (Commitment Of Traders) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of May 5, 2015. Note that the change is week-over-week. 10-Year Note: It would be an understatement to say that this was a weird week. In the early part of the week, 10-Year Yields (TNX) were up as much as 20 basis

Top Trading Links: Groundhog Day Edition

It’s like Groundhog Day. The stock market has pushed back to the highs, the VIX has pushed back to the 12s… Incredible. The longer term picture continues to show some breadth deterioration, but the bears continue to tip over the boat quite easily. Do you need more proof than this week’s action to understand markets are extremely hard? There’s no choice but to continually bust your ass, tighten up your process

Bullish Or Bearish Stocks? Here’s What The Charts Are Saying

Probabilities Rather Than Forecasting Long-time followers of CCM know we are not fans of market forecasting, which drags the human desire “to be right” into an already complex investment equation. However, we are big fans of assessing bullish probabilities relative to bearish probabilities based on the hard evidence we have in hand. What Is The Data In Hand Telling Us? As shown in the chart below, the broad NYSE Composite