Commodities

Gas Prices: Seasonality, Sentiment Indicate Higher Prices Ahead

Gas prices have been heading lower over the past several months and are down 19% since the June high. This has been great news for drivers and especially families taking road trips throughout the summer. However, it appears we may start paying more at the pump as gas prices begin to bottom out. Price and Momentum Below is a daily chart for the spot price of Unleaded Gasoline (RB_F) since mid-2012.

Precious Metals Weak: Breaking Down The Charts

Both gold and silver continue to lose favor with investors as evidenced by precious metals continued weakness into September. This also shows up in technical analysis, so let’s review some charts. Starting with a broader look, let’s break down the 3 year chart below of the Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Index (GPX). There are three very important support levels to watch right now: 1589 – The weekly low in June,

Sector Rotation: Using The Energy Sector To Gauge The Market Cycle

In part III of the CMT program we spent a significant amount of time studying intermarket analysis and sector rotation. For me, it was the most powerful and rewarding aspect of the program. Part of the required reading, when I studied for the exam, was John Murphy’s seminal work “Intermarket Technical Analysis – Trading Strategies for the Global Stock, Bond, Commodity and Currency Markets.” We were required to understand sector rotation,

Is Silver Targeting 14? The Script Is Playing Out

When beginning to analyze any market and/or security it is recommended one look at the longest time frame possible. The longer-term moves tend to repeat in time or price or both, while giving you a flavor for the potential moves that might be forthcoming. As well, longer-term moves often repeat the same form and proportion. In the case of Silver, a perfect mirror image fold back is in the process

Are Gold Prices Taking Cues From The Swiss Franc?

Three years ago yesterday, I shared a chart highlighting why Gold may underperform for years to come. The chart looked at the correlation between the Swiss Franc and Gold and how both were tagging ascending long-term resistance at the same time. The chart is shown again for your reference below. It was the centerpiece of a post entitled, “Swiss Franc Is Suggesting That Gold Will Be Flat-To-Down For Years To Come!”   Gold vs

Commodities In Focus: COT Report Analysis and Seasonality Trends

With the summer fast coming to a close I thought it would be a good idea to review some COT Report data and seasonality analysis to see where select commodity markets may be headed into year end. Note that the COT Report stands for the Commitment Of Traders Report. Last year, I wrote a post about using COT report data for trading and making macro forecasts. You may want to check that

Traders: Wait For Crude Oil Bounce Before Going Short

It looks pretty clear at this point that WTI Crude Oil futures have broken down from a substantial topping formation. A head and shoulders top could be drawn a few different ways. I prefer not to get hung up on every detail of a chart pattern or the measuring implications. The bottom line here is that crude oil has broken below a threshold that leaves it without any meaningful technical

Insights From Oil and Elliott Wave: Where Will The S&P 500 Travel Next?

The market is under pressure and traders are eager to answer the question: will the S&P 500 (SPX) once again bounce off the channel it has neatly traded in since 2012 or endure a deeper pullback? The following three charts derive insights from Oil and Elliott Wave Theory to offer further perspective about where the market is trading and the support levels that traders will be keying in on in

Why Market Volatility Is About To Make A Big Comeback (In 50 Charts Or Less)

2014 continues to build it’s reputation as a year full of counterintuitive market dynamics: Q2′s zombie volatility has (finally?) subsided – just as the seasonal period known as the Summer Doldrums is scheduled to kick in. Some of the shine has come off broad momentum trades active investors have piled into such as High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG), Semiconductors (SOX) and Biotech IBB). Despite positively-received Q2 Earnings, Major Regional (KRE)

Are Cotton Prices Finding A Bottom?

Commodities started off the year strong but as the crop reports started rolling in of the bumper crop that was expected for this year, prices began to fall a couple months ago. We now have some futures markets sitting near multi-year lows, which means it might be time to start looking for interesting setups. With that, I think Cotton prices may be ready to start putting in a bottom. The